Here is my playoff analysis for the first round of the MLB playoffs. Please note that most of this analysis was written before the playoffs started so it might sound eerie and wierd. All of the analysis was written before the respective games started and I have been right for the most part. I wanted to release everything at once because I'm OCD and that's just the way I do things... all at once. Remember, I've played/coached this game for almsot 20 years... I've played in the big games, played and coached against/with players who went on to play college ball or farm system ball, and I've won provincial championships, western national medals, and boast a 13 - 1 record as a coaching staff member of Team Saskatchewan at the Fall Prospect Series... I know my baseball and therefore I want to tell you that picking winners in the MLB playoffs is rocket science. Enjoy my picks because it took me a F*#@%&*G long time to get this right!!
Over 
In 5 games
We start this shindig with an earthquake. Everyone is picking the Twins, but I'm picking the A's to win it in 5 for two big reasons. First, although the Twins lead the season series 6 - 4 and have only lost once at home to the A's this year, the playoffs represent an entirely different ball game and strategy. Now, in the playoffs, manager's are playing to win the inning and utilize the tools the team has developed throughout the previous 162 games. During the season, Managers purposely put their players and line ups in certain situations in hope of developing some experience in certain game situations. The playoffs are a proving ground for these lessons. Furthermore, in the playoffs you will see managers making bold calls, pitching changes, etc to get the edge and win the chess game as quickly as they can. In the playoffs, Managers are thinking 7 plays ahead, not just the normal 4 or 5. It is because of this style of play that I think the A's will be able to win 2 games at Minnesota... game 1 and game 5.
The A's are the hottest team in the second half coming into the playoffs. This is important in the game of baseball. Baseball is a sport of which mental focus, mental stability, and positive self image is absolutely crucial. Without mental toughness, a baseball team or a baseball player will simply under perform. The A's are in the same position as the Chicago White Sox of 2005, the Boston Red Sox of 2004, the Florida Marlins, etc, etc. All of these teams were the hottest team in the MLB coming into the playoffs and they all did very well. These teams were the hottest teams because they had role players, a team first philosophy/game plan, and possessed the mental toughness and make up that made them virtually unbeatable. The White Sox were a dangerous hitting team one through nine, same with the Red Sox, the Marlins had that crazy young and unstoppable bull pen. These teams overperformed as a whole, and the players reached a new level of play because they found the championship mental make up. The A's have this... they don't play as pretty as other teams, but they are effective. Take note, the Big Hurt hit 27 of his 39 home runs in the second half, Estaban Loaiza went 4 - 0 in his last 4 starts, and the list goes on. Rich Harden looks to be coming back and this will be a big boost for the A's.
Lastly, head to head, the A's lead the Twins in almost every major category. They lead in team batting average, home runs, doubles, on base percentage, rbi's, slugging percentage and walks. Defensively, the A's pitching staff leads the Twins in hits allowed, runs allowed, earned runs allowed, opponent batting average, homeruns allowed, and complete games. The only notable statistic that the Twins lead the A's in is walks allowed, where the A's have walked over 150 more batters than the Twins... which could cost the A's this series if they continue on giving up the free pass. Also, an interesting note is that the A's and the Twins have the same record against AL Central opponents so the argument that the A's have played easier teams and games doesn't hold up.
So, in a gutsy call, I'm going against the Twins in this series. The Twins do have a really good team with Joe Maure, Justin Morneau, Johan Santana, etc, etc, but this won't be enough. Unfortunately, the Twins have to play the "hot team" in the first round of the playoffs and thus must be able to withstand the frustration that the A's less talented team will cause them. If they do this they will win the series early, if they can' t the A's will take it home. From experience in this situation and from the past MLB trends, I'm stickin with the hot A's in 5.
Over 
In 4 games
Unfortunately, I'm a huge Tigers fan this year. I made several predictions about this team that came true. I picked Justin Verlander to have a great season this year as a 35 year old rookie and he did (17 - 9). I said Kenny Rogers would show exactly what veteran stability can do for a realtively young team and he did. Unfortunatley, the Tiger's inexperience and cinderalla season will come to an abrupt end. The Tiger's really faltered in the second half while the Yankee's took off. The tigers had that killer edge and a flare of that "hot team" make up mentality but they lost it in July and haven't been able to get it back.
Head to head the Yankee's lead the Tigers in almost all major areas of the diamond. Offensively, the Yankee's have a higher overall team batting average, have scored more runs than Detroit (163 more to be exact), on base percentage, slugging percentage, walks, stolen bases, home runs (by 69), rbi's (by 170), and the list goes on and on. Defensively, the head to head numbers are in favour of the Yankee's but the numbers are much closer. For example, the Yankee's have given up 1 less earned run overall and have given up 2 less walks than the Tigers. Therefore, both pitching staffs have been pretty stellar, but the Yankee's still have the edge. Also, the Yankee's lead the seaon series 5 games to 2, with one loss coming at Yankee Stadium.
This all adds up to a Yankee's series win. The Tigers can play ball, they can battle, they do a lot of things right... but offensively they can't match up to the Yankee's. The Yankee's can hurt you one through nine. I mean, you've got Abreu, Matsui, Giambi, Jeter, A-Rod, Cano, Sheffield, and even Posada who are great hitters... there may be only one Yankee hitter in that line up that is "alright", but on any other team that player would be a good player (1B Andy Phillips). Second, the pitching line up with Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Wright and closer Mariano Rivera will win the pitching duel against the Tigers pretty good pitching line up with Verlander, Robertson, Rogers and Bonderman who, combined, have a much better win loss record than the Yankee foursome but will not be able to get past that Yankee offense.
The Yanks, unfortunatley, beat those lovable Tigers in 4 games, winning the first two at home in convincing fashion while losing one in Detroit (those Tiger fans are due to witness a playoff win in thier own house).
Over 
n 5 games
This is a tough series to pick. Simply, the Padres are an average offensive team while the Cardinals are a washed up offensive threat. The Padres strengths rest in their steady pitching and tight defense while the Cardinals are are looking to rekindle that pitching and defensive savvy that brought them to the World Series in 2004. So, what decides this series?
The Padres didn't have one player record over 90 rbi's, but they did have four players in the starting line up with over 70 rbi's and six players with 50 or more rbi's. This means the Padres have a well balanced, average, offensive threat. Defensively, the Padres will miss young phenom SS Khalil Green but with the presence of Giles, Cameron, Walker and Piazza, this team should steal a lot of hits away from the Cardinals while making the routine plays time after time after time. In the pitching department, Chris Young, Woody Williams, and Clay Hensley should impress in this series. I'm a little shaky with 1st game starter Jake Peavy because of his past post season horrific performances (remember how the Cards beat him up a couple of years ago). The big key in this series is the first game and whether he can officially dethrone king Albert.
The Cardinals aren't the same team as from previous years. Sure they have a lot of the same names such as Pujols, Edmonds, Carpenter, Suppan, etc... but most of these guys just aren't the same players. Pujols and Carpenter can still get it done... king Albert is the best hitter in baseball and might be the best ever (still very young and has had 6 straight 100 rbi seasons). Carpenter is a gamer, a pitching stud, and a Cy Young candidate. Offensively, the threats are the big three with Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen. You can throw Juan Encarnacion in the mix as well. Pitching, you have Carpenter, Suppan, and Marquis. Only Carpenter has had a decent season... hitters have figured out Suppan and Marquis. Also, with stud closer Jason Ingringhausen out for the season, the big question around the league is whether the Cardinals can find a way to crack the smothering defense of the upbeat San Diego Padres.... I don't think they can because it is asking a lot for Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen to win this series based on offense... when only king Albert is the real threat to score consistently.
The interesting thing about this matchup is that, head to head, the Cardinals lead in almost every offensive, defensive, and pitching category... and by quite a bit. The Cardinals boast a .13 better team batting average and they have more hits, rbi's, runs scored, homeruns, etc than the Padres. In the pitching department, the Cardinals have a much better E.R.A (by almost 3/4 of a run), hits allowed, walks, etc. So, then you may ask, why am I dissin the Cardinals offense and their pitching staff if they are heads above the Padres. The reason is simple. The Cardianls finished the season going 35 - 39 down the stretch... the worst down the stretch run out of any team in the post season. Second, they have a 34 - 47 record away from Busch Stadium... which is absolutely horrible and a reason why I don't think they can win a game in San Diego. Also, San Diego has a better record on the road (by 1 game) than they do at home... and both records are above .500 so the Padres are a threat to win on any given day because home field advantage doesn't mean squat... whether it is or isn't in their favour. This can be a good or bad thing, but with St. Louis's horrible away record, look for the Padres to take home a split for sure in the first two games. Last, the Padres are 4 - 2 against the Cards this season, losing 1 game at home and 1 game at Busch Stadium. This means, the Padres won 2 out of 3 at the Cards home diamond... a place where the Cards have a lot of success.
Don't get me wrong, I like the Cards, I like Pujols and I like Carpenter. I have a lot of respect for this team but they just aren't the juggernaut they are supposed to be and therefore the Padres steady attack and no mistake gameplan will lull the Cards to sleep and the Padres will pull out the win in 5. The Cards simply can't scrap it out over five games against the Padres... and I really don't think the Padres will lose this series in three games.
Padres in 5.
Over 
In 5 games
The biggest mistake that people will make in this series is picking the Dodgers to win... even with the abscence of Pedro Martinez and possibly El Duque. Without these guys, the Mets will still take this series... possibly in four games but for sure in five. The reason is simple... Pedro has been hurt all year and barely won over half of his games. El Duque is over the hill and his body is falling apart... he's now destined to be a great pitching coach for his national team. The Mets are a hot team just like the A's, but the Mets have more talent. They play as a team... they have played through adversity all season due to injuries. They've won almost 100 games with a band aid team... but the key word is team... the Mets have depth and they should meet the Yanks in the World Series and give them a run for their money... but I'm getting too far ahead of myself.
The Mets really don't have a starting pitching staff right now... but they have a deep and powerful bullpen. Trachsel, Glavine, and rookie Maine will give the the Mets six or so solid innings and leave it to the bullpen who should overpower and outpitch the Dodgers. The big question mark is the depth and effectiveness of the Mets pitching staff. Without El Duque this staff will take a HUGE blow... but they should have enough to get past the Dodgers. The Mets have faced this adversity all season.
Similar to the Yankee's, the Mets have a deadly offensive line up. Delgado, Lo Duca, Greene, Beltran, Wright and Reyes should do very well against a pretty decent Dodgers pitching staff. Delgado, Beltran, and Wright all had over 100 rbi's this season. 7 of the possible starting line up players against the Dodgers on Wednesday have a season batting average over .275 with 4 of these players hitting over .300. Simply, the Mets should be able to outhit the Dodgers, even if the Mets have a patchwork/bandaid starting pitching staff to counter with.
The Dodgers are the streakiest team in the MLB... and if they don't get off to a good start this series might be over in 3 but with the pitching woes of the Mets, I will give the Dodgers the loss in five. The Dodgers have great pitchers in Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, and Brad Penny (still injured) that should give them a legitimate shot at beating the Mets. The Dodgers also have a decent bull pen with Aaron Sele and Mark Hendrickson now working from the cheap seats... but this solid pitching isn't enough in this series. Offensively, the Dodgers have J.D. Drew and Nomar Garciaparra and thats about it. Furthermore, Garciaparra is suffering some nagging injuries and isn't 100%. Rafael Furcal, Kenny Lofton, Julio Lugo, and Endre Ethiere put the ball in play but they are all streaky hitters. Even throw Jeff Kent into the mix... either they all hit or no one hits. I am tempted to side with the Dodgers against the Mets hurting starting pitching staff, but if anyone has followed the Mets this year, they have won games with offense, solid defense, and band-aid starting pitching.
Statistically, head to head, the Mets conquer the Dodgers in almost every offensive category... which isn't a big suprise. The big suprise is that the Mets equally dominate the Dodgers in the pitching and defensive categories. The Mets lead the Dodgers in earned run average, hits allowed, runs allowed, strikeouts, opposition batting average, etc. Therefore, this proves that the Mets can and will win with their "hurting pitching staff" because they have passed this test throughout the entire season and they should continue to battle it out in this series vs the Dodgers.
Now, I am picking the Mets in 5 and I know they can't afford to go this many but it will take this many to beat that talented Dodger's pitching staff along with the streaky offense of the Dodgers that can put a lot of baserunners on in a hurry with gap to gap doubles and singles. The Mets take a 2 - 0 lead, lose a tough one in L.A, and probably win the series in 4... but I'll take the cushion that they don't win the first two and thus push my prediction to 5 games. I'm making this call on the fact that the Mets have only lost 3 or more games in a row only 4 times . June 27 - June 30 ( 4 in a row - 2 losses at the Red Sox and 2 losses at the Yankees), August 14 - August 16 ( 3 in a row - at Philadelphia), September 15 - 17 (3 in a row at Pittsburgh), September 25 - 27 (3 in a row - 1 at home against Atlanta and 2 at home against the Nationals). In two of these four losing streaks, Pedro Martinez and El Duque were involved in the back to back losses. Also, only one of these losing streaks was more than 3 games (4 in June). Meanwhile, the Dodgers have lost 3 or more in a row 7 times. April 30 - May 1 (5 games in a row), June 16 - June 21 (5 in a row), June 26 - June 28 (3 in a row), July 13- July 17 (6 in a row), July 19 - July 26 (8 in a row), August 21 - 25 (4 in a row), September 3 - September 5 (3 in a row). Thus, it is rare that the Mets lose 3 in a row and this is the main reason why I believe they won't lose this series. Last, the Mets lead the regular season series 4 - 3.
