Week 4 Picks

Once again sorry for the late posting but to get quality picks you have to do some quality thinking (actually, I was watching a copy of Mr. Karcha's "Little Monster's" for the past 45 minutes). Anyway's this week is a GAMBLING week. The variables of almost each game this Sunday add up to “flip a coin and pick a team”. However, I’m not going to play like that. Instead, I’m going to show you the game behind the game of my five locks for Sunday and then add in that luck factor to determine the winner. I’ve decided that my approach isn’t that flawed, but that emotions, back stories, coaching staffs, and rivalries (the luck factor) are/is a much larger factor this year in selecting a winner than in years previous. So, the strategy for picking winners is to attack the games! Meaning, I’m not going to shy away from the tough games that most people won’t bet on… I’m going to attack these games and prove to you why my picks will win.

Lets begin this matchup by looking at the injuries. On the injury front, the Jets have a some bumps and bruises but all of the key players should be fine and ready to go for Sunday. The Colts aren’t a physically dominating team so look for players like QB Chad Pennington and WR Laveranues Coles to be fine throughout the entire game. Defensively, there are a couple players listed as probable on the starting defense but these players were all listed as probables last week and they all played, and for the most part, played well. Without the Colts possessing a decent running attack (ranked 24th in the NFL), look for these players to last the entire game and do quite well. The one thing this Jets D does well is disguise blitz’s and put pressure on the quarterback… traditionally, their scheme has done well vs. Colts QB Peyton Manning and this trend should continue this Sunday at Giants Stadium.

For the Colts, the bumps and bruises have healed on offense and there are no notable injuries to report. Defensively, the Colts have 12 players listed as either Questionable or out. The big loss is FS Bob Sanders who is out for week 4 vs. the Jets. He is the only reason why the Colts can stop the run and his absence was felt last week vs. the Jags as the Jags ran at will and really controlled the flow of the game. Along with 5 injuries on the defensive line and two notable injuries in the linebacking core, I think that the Colts will be hard pressed to stop the run this week. Even if these players do play (and some have been listed as questionable since week 1 or 2 and have played each week) they will not be 100% and even at 100% this Colts D just can’t figure out the run. Also, note that 4 out of the 5 cornerbacks for the Colts are banged up and even though they might play, they won’t be 100% either. Therefore, Jets QB Chad Pennington looks to be a good bet on having one of the top 5 QB passer ratings this Sunday.

Offensively the Jets rank 15th overall in the NFL. They have the 7th best passing offense and the 27th best rushing offense. Defensively, the Jets rank 29th overall with the 26th best passing defense and the 25th best rushing defense. Offensively, they have been able to maintain ball control and thus force the opposing offense to strike quickly, which if they don’t, can be extremely frustrating. The problem with the Jets defense is that they can’t anticipate the play. To me, it seems that they anticipate the wrong play every time (thinking run when it’s a pass, thinking pass when it’s a run) because they give too much respect to the run game and thus they throw themselves off balance. However, when they make the right decisions and show composure, the Jets D plays like a top 5 ranked defense.

Offensively, the Colts rank 5th overall in the NFL. They have the 2nd best passing offense and the 24th best rushing offense. Defensively, the Colts rank 22nd overall with the 7th best passing offense and the 28th best rushing defense. Offensively, Peyton Manning can score at will if his offensive line and receivers can be on the same page. Manning is a rhythm and momentum QB. This means that he likes to establish these two things in a came to build a big lead and then just do some ball control offense to eat the clock. Defensively, the Colts are just an average team. However, the achilles heel of this team is the run defense. Not only do they give up a lot of yards, they allow for teams to keep possession of the ball and thus take away opportunities for Manning’s quick strike offense. Also, the horrible run defense is beginning to disrupt the flow of the Colts entire game plan which is allowing for opposing teams to open up the playbook and go shot for shot against the Colts…. something the Colts do not want to do.

Last week, I made the case about how Favre struggles indoors, in the dome, and especially at the Silverdome/Ford Field. However, in week 2, Favre did have a very good game against the Saints and this seemed to carry over to week 3 in Detorit. Favre had a career day at Ford Field (his best game in a dome ever) and the Packers won the contest. This week, I make the same case with Peyton Manning. Manning is 2-3 against the Jets at Giants Stadium. The Colts have been outscored 149-84 in those games. In his last trip to face the Jets in New York, Indianapolis lost 41-0 in a 2002 wild-card game. It's the only time Manning has been shut out in 140 career contests. The two-time MVP threw for 137 yards with two interceptions in his playoff loss to New York. In his career, Manning has nine interceptions and five touchdowns against the Jets at Giants Stadium. Thus, like Jacksonville Jaguars, the NY Jets are a thorn in the heel of Peyton Manning. And the reason being is that both teams have a ball control offense that throws Peyton Manning off his rhythm. Manning likes to be on the field and work quickly, and these teams seem to disrupt the rhythm that Manning likes to work with. Neither the Jaguars or the Jets do anything extra special defensively or offensively, but their overall game plan and playing style seems to work against Peyton Manning. Now, even though the Colts are 39-25 against the Jets, their highest win total against any opponent, the record of interest is how Peyton Manning plays against the Jets at Giant’s Field. This is the one weak link in Peyton Manning’s armour and with first in the AFC East on the line for the Jets, I think this is one reason to pick the Jets to keep this game close and possibly win it late in the 4th quarter.

LUCK FACTOR --> Look for the injuries to pile up on the Colts this Sunday and for the Jets D to gain confidence and play their best game of the season against Manning and the Colts. Also, look for Jets QB Chad Pennington to have a F^@#$*G phenomenal game along with the Jets “run by committee” running game. So, the smart play for this game is on Point Spread. Have the Jets cover the 9.5 points the Colts are favoured by and pick the Colts to win on pro-line @ 1.30. That’s right, you all know that I’m crazy and I always make the wrong selections but this game will come down to the wire, whether it be high scoring or low scoring, the game will be decided late in the 4th quarter. Don’t expect the Jets to win this game, but do expect them to stay close… defensively they have made the adjustments from last week (475 offensive yards given up) and won’t be that horrible against Manning and the Colts.

This is a tough game to grasp. If this game was to happen in week 3, I would have picked the Bills. However, after last week’s performance from both teams, I am going to side with the Vikings. These teams are clean, meaning there is nothing that they do terribly wrong or extremely well. The X factor of this match up is opportunities. The question is which team capitalizes the most on opportunities, creates more opportunities, allows the least amount of opportunities for the other team, etc. The answer is the Vikings. The Bills have been plagued by not capitalizing on their opportunities and giving up a lot of opportunities. This was really evident against the Patriots and the Jets. The Vikings don’t give up a lot of opportunities and really capitalize on almost every opportunity, big or small. This has allowed them to stay in and play with every team thus far. This includes shutting down the Bears offense, moving the ball against the bears offense, shutting down that great Redskins offense, taking advantage of the Panther’s mistakes, shutting down the Panthers offense, etc. The Vikings have passed the test, going 2 – 1 against three solid opponents while the Bills are 1 – 2 against possibly only one solid opponent in the New England Patriots.

By the numbers, the QB comparison looks tight on paper. Vikings QB Brad Johnson has a 60.9% completion rating. Bills QB J.P Losman has a 60.8% completion rate. Johnson has thrown for 660 passing yards while Losman has thrown for a respectable 575 passing yards in 3 games. Johnson has a respectable 81.8 passer rating however Losman is boasting an 86.2 passer rating. Johnson has thrown for 1TD and 1INT while Losman has thrown for 2TD’s and 1INT. So, both QB’s have relatively equal statistics on paper, but sometimes paper can lie. Losman threw for 247 yards combined in his first two games. He threw for 328 yards against a bad Jets passing defense (ranked 26th in the league) who had a bad defensive game overall, but took advantage of some key Bills mistakes and turnovers. Previous, Losman threw for 164 yards against the Patriots now 22nd ranked passing defense and only 83 yards against the Dolphins (6th ranked pass defense). The Vikings boast the 13th best passing defense in the NFL. Thus, Losman should have some difficulties against a good Vikings pass defense and thus the play of RB Willis McGahee becomes a key factor in this game. Now, lets look at the road Vikings QB Brad Johnson has been on. He’s faced the Redskins, the Panthers, and the Bears. Johnson threw for 223 yards against the Redskins, who have the 16th best passing defense. Against the Panthers 5th ranked pass defense, Johnson threw for 243 yards. Last week versus the Bears, Johnson threw for 194 yards 12th ranked pass defense and 5th ranked overall defense. The bottom line is that Johnson and the Viking passing offense is consistent against any defense, and they have faced some very good passing defenses in the first 3 weeks yet his numbers rival that of Losman’s. Losman threw for 83 yards against the Dolphins 6th ranked defense… Johnson threw for 243 against the Panthers 5th ranked defense. Thus, Johnson should remain consistent and do well against the Bills 8th ranked passing offense. Along with another consistent and solid 90+ yard rushing day from RB Chester Taylor.

Since we are on the topic of numbers and comparisons, lets look at the running backs in this contest. Bills RB Willis McGahee is the better known in this matchup as Chester Taylor is just beginning to come into his own. By the numbers, McGahee has rushed for 311 yards on 71 carries averaging to around 4.4 yards per carry along with 0TD. Taylor has rushed for 275 yards on 75 carries averaging 3.7 yards per carry along with 1TD. Thus, the match up looks pretty even by the numbers and the edge should probably go to McGahee because he may be a tougher, more seasoned running back than Chester Taylor. But hold on a minute… the paper lies once again. Last week, McGahee rushed for 150 yards, almost half his season total vs. the Jets who are 25th against the run. The Dolphins and the Patriots were 16th and 17th respectively against the run. McGahee rushed for 70 yards on 20 carries vs. the Patriots and 91 yards on 25 carries vs. the Dolphins. Although consistently putting up numbers against decent run defenses, McGahee’s first real test comes against Minnesota this Sunday. The Vikings are ranked 10th against the run and if Losman is having a horrible day trying to get anything going, you can bet that the Vikings front four and linebacking core will key into McGahee and hold him to less than 70 yards on the day… which should all add up to the Bills having a sub-par offensive Sunday. Vikings RB Chester Taylor has been decent, durable, and consistent this season against some stiff competition. Taylor rushed for 88 yards on 31 carries vs. the Redskins 15th ranked rushing defense. Taylor rushed for 113 yards on 23 carries against the Panthers 27th ranked rushing defense in week two and 74 yards on 20 carries last week against the Bears 7th ranked rushing defense. Thus, even though he had a big day against a poor rushing defense, just like McGahee, Taylor has put up solid rushing numbers against two decent rush defenses. In all contests, he has rushed for more yards than the opposition has allowed on average throughout the season. Like QB Brad Johnson, Taylor is consistent and plays well against anyone. He should do well against the Bills 21st ranked rush defense (even with the possible return of LB Takeo Spikes).

The last tid bit of information to consider is the overall numbers. The Vikings are ranked 10th in the NFL against the run, the Bills 21st. The Vikings have put up these numbers against notable competition such as Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts (61 yards combined) and the Redskins 4th ranked rushing offense, Deshawn Foster and DeAngelo Williams (94 yards) and the Panther’s 21st rushing offense, and Thomas Jones (56 yards) and the 23rd ranked Bears rushing offense. The Vikings shut down the big names in the running game and put a big dint in the overall rushing rankings of each team that they have faced. The Bills 21st ranked rushing defense gave up 160 rushing yards to Laurence Maroney (rookie) and Corry Dillon of the 7th ranked rushing offense in the NFL, the New England Patriots. In week 2, the Bills gave up 125 yards to the Miami 22nd rushing offense led by RB Ronnie Brown (Ronnie who????) and WR Chris Chambers! In week 3, the Bills gave up 74 yards to Barlow, Washington, Houston, Pennington, etc and the Jets 27th running offense. This analysis tells us that the Bills can’t stop anybody, not even no name running backs on horrible running teams. The only decent running attack they have faced this year resulted in 160 yards rushing for the patriots. The Vikings have the 18th overall rushing attack in the league (averaging around 108 yards per game). Look for the Vikings to control this game with the running attack (and probably put up a lot of points with it). Defensively, look for the Vikings to have another big day against another notable running back in Willis McGahee.

Thus, the story shapes up like this. The Bills won’t be able to mount any offense against the Vikings whether it be by the pass or the run. Look for the Vikings to establish the run game early and look for QB Brad Johnson to pick apart the Bills defense with quick slants and play action passes. Bills QB J.P. Losman will have a tough day on Sunday as he will be pressured often and forced to make bad decisions of which the opportunistic Vikings will take advantage of and score some points. McGahee might have a decent game, but it won’t nearly be enough to catch up to the Vikings who should be able to control the flow of the game and the time of possession and thus build a small but insurmountable lead over the Bills by half time.

LUCK FACTOR --> Losman has an average day against the Vikings and are able to even out the time of possession. In this case, the Bills should be able to rack up around 220 yards total offense max and without long pass capabilities, this shouldn’t be enough for the Bills to overcome the Vikings. So, on point spread take the Vikings to cover the easy 1.5 points and pick them straight up on pro-line at 2.55.

For those who don’t want to read further, I’m picking the Redskins to win at home by building a 14+ point lead by half time. Although Jacksonville has looked good in the first 3 games of the season, I don’t think the teams they played were firing on all cylinders. . To warm you up to this game, lets look at the recent history between these two teams. Washington has won two of the three meetings with Jacksonville however in their last meeting in 2002 the Jags won 26 – 7 with Mark Brunnell at QB. Previously, Washington had won the first two contests by 12 points or more. Jacksonville has not yet won in Washington. Also, no real notable injuries to report that won’t heal by Sunday. However, one player to keep an injury eye on is CB Rasheen Mathis who is questionable with a knee injury. This is key because if he isn’t 100%, this opens up the Redskins passing game in a big way.

I think the stats on the Jags are a little misleading. Sure they beat the Cowboys and Steelers in Jacksonville but the Cowboys made a ton of mistakes that kept Jacksonville in the game. Also, Big Ben was not himself in his first start of the season against the Jags and the Jags found a way to pull off the win. Even in their only loss of the season, Colts QB Peyton Manning had one of his career worst games and still found a way to beat the Jags… mind you the Jags have given Manning a tough time in the last several years. However, I am giving Jacksonville some credit. They are a gutsy team with some talent and they never give up… they keep on attacking, clawing, and scratching in every game they play and this gives the opposing team a lot of stress and duress. They make the game seem longer than it actually is which creates frustration and impatience within the opposing teams sideline.

Now, I won’t do a side by side QB, RB, LB, SS, water boy, etc comparison of each team. Reason being is that the majority of the Redskins numbers have come in last weeks pounding of the Texans. However, last week was a very important week for both teams. The Jags figured out that, offensively, they can’t win against a team that is willing to scrap with them and the Redskins finally have their offense working… at game speed. Game speed offense was lacking in the first two weeks of the season for the Redskins and now that they have it, they are very very very DANGEROUS offensively.

Continuing on, this match up consists of the defense of the Jaguars vs. the balance of the Redskins. Defensively, the Jags are ranked 3rd overall in the NFL which is very impressive. They’ve held both the Colts and Steelers to their lowest point totals this season and for good reason. The Jags D is ranked 10th against the pass and 3rd against the run. Granted, that pass D has earned its ranking but I question that 3rd ranked run D. The Jags held RB Julius Jones (will be good in 3 years, but below average right now) to 72 yards in week 1 and the entire Stars team to 85 yards. Dallas has the 16th ranked rushing offense. In week 2, the Jags held RB Willie Parker (another young stud who should be good soon) and Pittsburgh’s 15th ranked rushing offense to 26 yards rushing and the Colts 24th ranked rushing offense to 65 yards on the ground. From these stats, I argue that the Jags D hasn’t seen a decent running attack or RB. The Skins 4th ranked running offense (although it is inflated because of last week’s stomping of Houston) and healthy RB Clinton Portis, at home, should be a real test for this Jags rushing D. If they aren’t successful, this should open up the passing game for the Redskins and with the weapons they have on the passing offensive side of the ball, that 10th ranked Jags D should get quite the workout. However, the Jags passing D is legit. Facing Drew Bledsoe, Ben Rothlesberger, and Peyton Manning in the first three weeks and allowing a meager 42 points in the air is pretty damn good. Offensively, Jags RB Fred Taylor is off to a stellar start and is running quite well. He has faced a decent running defense in the Cowboys (9th) and a good run defense in the Steelers (5th) and has had success. Boasting the 8th best running offense (only 75 yards per game behind the total passing offense for the Jags) this team relies on ball control and the wear and tear of an effective running game to win ball games.

LUCK FACTOR --> Look for Jags RB Fred Taylor to have a good day on Sunday (100+ yards rushing) but also for Redskins QB Clinton Portis to expose the Jags run defense which isn’t as good as the numbers suggest. The luck factor of this game will be field position. Look for the Redskins defense to reek havoc on Jags QB Byron Leftwich. They will force a couple turnovers and win the field position battle. Then, through utilizing Portis, look for play action to open up and for the Redskins to come away with points on 70% of their drives and thus build the early lead and keep on tacking on field goals here and there. This will force the hand the Jags 21st ranked passing offense to move the ball downfield quickly and they simply won’t be able to do it.

The Jags are on a decline with their offensive slump (especially the passing game) and the Redskins are on the rise with finally figuring out the offense, which is dangerous all around. Understandably, if the Redskins don’t win the field position battle the Jags should be able to pull out the win in another low scoring affair. However, with home field advantage, a quality offensive co-ordinator and head coach calling the shots, and a Redksins team ready for RB Fred Taylor, bet on the home team to surprise and pull out the win. So, on point spread have the Redskins cover the 3.5 points. On pro-line, pick the Redskins to win at a healthy 3.60.

Since 2000, New England is 3 – 1 vs. Cincinnati with two of the four games being decided by 3 points or less. All four games have been decided by 7 points or less. New England’s only loss came in Cincinnati by 6 points in 2001. However, the Patriots have not lost consecutive games in 52 contests which is the 3rd longest active streak since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Also, Palmer looks to lead his team to their second consecutive 4 – 0 start. The comparison’s are similar on both sides of the field. The Bengal’s have a very talented and potent offense along with an all around decent defense that gets the job done. Palmer is becoming a great NFL quarterback and RB Rudi Johnson is having a break out year, with almost 300 yards rushing and 3 rushing touchdowns. Not to be outdone, the New England Patriots possess a tried and true QB in Tom Brady along with many offensive weapons that just have been operating at 80% or so the entire season. The defense has been sound, but called on too often to defend a short field. The big divide is that the Bengal’s are finishing off their drives while the Patriots are still waiting to break out of the minor offensive sputter that is keeping them from scoring on a regular basis and becoming dominant once again in the AFC. In this game something’s gotta give and fortunately my picks will make a lot of money because of this.

On the injury front, the Patriots are relatively healthy with Tom Brady “supposedly” still suffering a little from a slight shoulder injury. Clearly, from looking at the interviews, this stinks of Bill Bilechick’s infamous mind games and Brady will be 100% and good to go on Sunday. However, the Bengals are pretty banged up… especially on D. 6 defensive starters for the Bengal’s are nursing some injuries and two of these defensive starters, LB Rashad Jeanty and SS Dexter Jackson will miss Sunday’s contest. Along with two other injuries to the secondary/linebacking core and two injuries on the defensive front for the Bengals, Patriots QB Tom Brady should get back on track this week. Brady has thrown for over 700 yards this season already, and with the offensive weapons he has around him such as TE’s Ben Watson, Daniel Grahm and WR’s Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel and Troy Brown represent a balanced offensive attack. The wildcard in this entire match up is Patriots RB Cory Dillon who is yet to establish any dominance this year. However, combined with RB Laurence Maroney, the Patriots should still possess a balanced and strong offensive attack that can strike effectively all over the field, thus making the injured and patchwork Cincinnati defense run all over the field to make the plays. Also, Patriots coach Bill Bilechick is a football mastermind and he should be able to make life very difficult for the Bengal’s defense.

To continue on the injury front, the Bengal’s don’t have any serious injuries but they do have a lot of banged up WR’s such as T.J. Houshmandzedeh (foot), and Tab Perry (hip) who is out for week 4. However, WR’s Chad Johnson, Kelley Washington and Chris Henry are ready to go but look for Henry to possibly be facing suspension after once again getting himself in some hot water. He will be a game time decision. Although healthy, news interviews have shown that these receivers are still banged up and recouping from their dramatic win over Pittsburgh last Sunday. Although he was listed as “healthy”, Bengals WR Chad Johnson only had 11 yards receiving last week against the Steelers. However, this week he is opening his mouth stating he is going to wreak havoc on the Patriots secondary. In a surprising and out of character twist, Patriots head coach Bill Bilechick responded to Johnson’s remarks, noting that he has spent all week preparing for C.J. and that he will not be the same after Sunday’s game…. This shows how intense Bilechick and the Patriots are preparing for this game and besides, I’d take Bilechick’s ability to shut down C.J. over C.J’s ability to beat the entire Patriots secondary along with the schemes of Bill Bilechick. Defensively, the Patriots have a couple minor injuries to their secondary in Hobbs and Wilson (wrist and hamstring), but both should be good to go for Sunday. However, with Tedy Bruschi, Junior Seau, Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison and Asante Samuel 100% healthy, pissed off, and fully prepared to play on Sunday, Bengals QB Carson Palmer and the talented but banged up offense might have a below average day against the Patriots defense.

Before we look at the luck factor, lets scour over the overall statistics for each team. The New England Patriots boast the 7th best overall offense with the pass ranking 13th best and the running game ranking 7th best in the NFL but are only averaging roughly 17 points per game. The Bengal’s offense is ranked 14th overall with the 18th best passing offense and the 10th best rushing offense in the NFL and are averaging 28 points per game. Thus, proving my point that the main divide between these two offenses is that the Bengal’s are finishing off plays for major points while the Patriots are sputtering. Defensively, both teams are pretty similar. The Patriots rank 19th overall in the NFL while the Bengal’s rank 20th. Each team has played a solid football team, a week football team, and a mediocre football team. The only difference is that the Bengal’s battled through hell and back to beat the Steelers while Brady and the Patriots couldn’t capitalize on anything and lost to the Bronco’s.

LUCK FACTOR --> The luck factor this game is the emotional and physical toll that week 3 had on each team. The Bengal’s, bruised and battered, gave everything they had and battled through a tremendously physical game where they took a lot of punishment. The back and forth play was an emotional rollercoaster for the Bengal’s and pulling out the win took everything out of them. They are DESTINED for a let down game. They simply don’t have the mental focus, energy, or physical strength to stay competitive against a very pissed off, focused, determined, and healthy Patriots team. This is the rebound test for the Patriots and don’t doubt for a second that they won’t pour everything into this game to keep their pride in tact and the critics off their back. They want dominance, most of them have been there before, they are a well gelled group, and this win is crucial for them to set the course straight. If Bill is talking and taking all the tricks out of the bag you know that the Patriots are willing to do whatever they need to do to win this game…. the Bengal’s aren’t on the same level this week… however, they were last week against the Steelers.

Pick the Patriots to cover the 6.5 points as this is way too many points for the Bengal’s. The pro-line is tricky for this game. I’m going to go with the tie just out of respect for Carson Palmer and that quick attack capable offense. However, if you think that a late comeback is out of the question for Palmer and the boys this week take the Patriots straight up.

This will be a very good game to watch and some may say a scary game to bet on, but I’ve got the winner for you. The main variable in this game is the absence of Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander which makes scoring points against the Bears defense a little more difficult. Unfortunately, this is the second big injury to the Seahawk offense (they lost a starting guard as well). Defensively for the Seahawks, they have two key injuries to their secondary. CB,FS,SS Jordan Babineaux (concussion) is out for Sunday’s game against the Bears but FS Ken Hamlin (2 INT’s 18 TKL’s) will probably play on Sunday. The Bears are healthy on D but might miss TE Desmond Clark (did not practice Friday) who has 193 yards receiving and a TD. Although there is a decent backup(Gilmore) waiting to fill in for Clark, don’t expect the Bears offense to use him like they did Desmond although Gilmore does have 2 TD’s. Other than these injury reports, there are no major reports to discuss on the injury front. The QB showdown in this contest should be a dandy as Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (67.8 completion %, 658 yards passing, 6TD’s and 5 INT’s) faces off against emerging QB sensation Rex Grossman (64.9 completion %, 829 yards passing, 6TD’s and 3INT’s). The RB battle should be won by Bears RB Thomas Jones who is consistent and keeps drives going. The Bears are 4-1 at Soldier Field under Grossman, who threw for career highs of 289 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-7 home win over Detroit in Week 2. Chicago is 8-1 at home since the start of last season, allowing 44 points in those wins (works out to 5.5 points allowed per win). To get a better analysis of this game, lets turn to the statistics.

Obviously, the main match-up is between the Seahawks offense and the Bears defense. The Seahawks have the 18th best overall offense in the NFL, ranking 19th on the pass and 14th on the run. In addition, the Seahawks offense is averaging 24 points per game, 4 points below their #1 scoring offensive output from last year. Defensively, the Bears rank 5th overall defensively, ranking 12th overall against the pass and 8th overall against the run. The Bears defense is allowing an average of 7.6 points per game (23 points allowed all season). This is the best overall defensive points allowed per game average in the NFL. Also, take into consideration that in the past 8 wins they have collected out of the last 9 games at Soldier Field, the Bears have allowed 5.5 points per game. With Alexander out for the Seahawks the Bears will be able to key in on the new 4 man WR offensive set that the Seahawks are using quite well. However, this 4 WR set was much more effective with Alexander in the back field. Look for the front 4 of the Bears D line to control the running game and put constant pressure on Hasselbeck the entire game. You can bet that the Bears 12th ranked passing defense is looking to score some points on Sunday.

Defensively, the Seahawks rank 11th overall with the 23rd best passing defense and the 2nd best rushing defense. The Bears have the 8th best offense placing 5th in the passing department and 23rd in the rushing department. Look for Grossman to pick apart the Seahawks horrible secondary and for Jones to get some touches to keep them honest. Also, consider that the Seahawks have built early leads on many opponents this year and thus, especially in the last two weeks, the teams have been forced to go to the pass for the majority of the game and thus running attempts have been way down. This has inflated the effectiveness of that Seahawk running defense. If the Bears control the game like they should, the Seahawk run defense will be tested to the full extent and we will see if that defense can take the wear and tear.

So, as a re-cap, we have Seattle’s strength in the running game vs the Bear’s strength in stopping the run. However, without RB Shaun Alexander in the line up for the Seahawks look for the Bears to easily win this battle. Then, we have the Seahawks new look receiving offense (19th overall) against the Bears stingy passing defense (12th overall). Without Alexander in the line up to balance the attack and keep the Bears defensive secondary totally honest, the Bears will win this battle. Also, we have the Bears strength in the passing game vs. the Seahawks horrible pass defense. Look for the Bears to put up 3 touch downs through the air guaranteed. Then you have the bears 23rd ranked rushing offense against the somewhat untested 2nd ranked Seahawks rushing defense. Simply, the Bears won’t mind losing this battle if it means keeping the Seahawks honest against the run and thus eating up 6 minutes per drive of clock time that results in a major score.

Luck Factor --> The Luck Factor has already occurred as Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander will not have a decent rushing day on Sunday to keep this game close. The other part of the equation is the play of Rex Grossman who should have made the adjustments (both learning and experientially) concerning up the middle blitz pressure that caused him a lot of trouble against Minnesota last week. However, when the pressure wasn’t there or when he was able to move the pocket, Grossman really looked superb and moved the ball around quite well. Thus, in very convincing fashion, I say play the Bears to cover the 3.5 points on point spread and to win straight up on pro-line @ 1.80. This may be the easiest game to bet on in week 4.

Other notable picks… on point spread have the Saints cover against the Panthers (Saints are due for a let down but the Panthers have not proven anything this year at all… and historically the Saints have given the Panthers headaches). Have St. Louis cover the 5.5 points against the Lions (that Rams O will have the ball all day long) and have the Cardinals cover the 7.5 points against the Falcons ( Both teams can score points, but Vick can’t keep up with Warner’s passing game).

A wise man once told me today “This year, to be effective in picking football winners in drafts and sports select, you have to know absolutely NOTHING about football”. So, check back later (late Saturday night or early Sunday Morning) for Ev’s Extra Extravaganza as I will reveal Kinky Kayla’s Kick you in the Kohones POWER PICKS for the games I have selected this week.

Week 3 Recap: A Sunday of Firsts

Week 3 was a week of firsts... kinda like this guys face after the first time he got laid... can you see the confusion, the awe, the determination to remember and explain everything that happened... this is what most nfl game day gamblers looked like after Sunday's games were finished. Sad as it may be, this guy was more lucky than almost all nfl betters this past Sunday and it was all because last Sunday was a "Sunday of Firsts".

Well, lets see what happened last week. Brunnell actually finds a way to gel with the many weapons of the Redskins offense and goes 22/22 to break the nfl record consecutive pass record and 24/27 overall. Favre finds a way to win his first game of the season, in Detroit, in the dome, with a horrible Green Bay Packer team... during the game even he looked suprised as to the catches and plays his team made. The Bears defense goes 5 - 15 on 3rd down conversions... before this game they only allowed two 3rd down conversions both of which were under 3 yards.... the Vikings converted three 3rd down conversions over 6 yards a piece... meanwhile Rex Grossman, the young QB stud and 1st overall in the QB passer rating, throws 2 interceptions... his first two interceptions of the season. The Ravens show they are human and need a 4th quarter comeback of 12 points to BEAT THE BROWNS by 1 point... they were favoured by 7 points. The Ravens outscored the Browns 56 - 7 last year... and the Browns were a little better last year while the Ravens were quite worse. This was the first game that Cleveland QB Frye threw for over 250 yards (298) and for the first time he didn't have more interceptions than touchdowns. Heleads his team in rushing (the first and only quarterback to do so in the league thus far) against the Ravens #1 OVERALL DEFENSE??~!?! You gotta be kidding me. The only team to show up and cover the spread out of my games picked was the Indianapolis Colts who scored 21 points against an injury riddled Jacksonville defense that pretty much had the entire 2nd string playing for the second half.... however, Peyton Manning completed under 50% of his passes (45% to be exact) which is the first time he has completed under 50% of his passes this year, and as of my calculations, the second time in 5 years... the first time Manning completed under 50% of his passes was last year against, you guessed it, Jacksonville!!

So, what does this all mean? Well, I figure it doesn't mean that I'm a cursed (many experts won or covered on only 5 or 6 games out of the entire week 3 schedule) but that finally, the nfl has evened out and most teams are playing on an level playing field. There are no more jugernauts in the league this year... coaches and technologies have caught up with the game and now it's a constant chess match to gain the momentum. The only given is that the team that establishes momentum early and withstands adversity soon after, goes on to win the game. Also, week 3 was the coalesce point of the NFL season, which usually appears in week 9 or 10. From now on each game is huge as it seems that, on "Any Given Sunday", almost anything can happen. So, even 0-3 teams aren't out of the playoff hunt... not by a long shot... even 10 point underdogs look really good to bet on this year. For the first time in years, NFL pool players and betters must insert the "luck" variable into the equation to determine a winner. On the bright side, small bets are looking to pay off big!!!!

Week 1 Pro-Line Record ---> 1 - 4 ______ Week 1 Point Spread Record ---> 1 - 4
Week 2 Pro-Line Record ---> 2 - 3 ______ Week 2 Point Spread Record ---> 2 - 3
Week 3 Pro-Line Record ---> 1 - 4 ______ Week 3 Point Spread Record ---> 1 - 4

Ev's Overall Combined Record 4 - 11

Week 3 Picks

Here we are in Week 3 and there are many question marks over many teams and players. Everything seems tight this year as the top 10 favourites to make the post season are beginning to be ousted by a barrage of suprise teams. This makes every week important and most games hard to predict. However, it's good to see that the playing field is starting to even out around the league which creates much better odds for betting (especially on the under dog). So, the story for this week is to stay away from a couple key games such as Cincinatti at Pittsburgh and the New York Giants at the Seattle Seahawks. Even though I could mention a couple other games, I'd rather point to the fact that there may be 4 - 6 decent games to bet on that don't include a huge range of tangibles, variables, etc. So, here are my 5 "FIRM" locks for this Sunday.

This is a huge divisional battle in the NFC North division. Both teams are at 2 - 0 but the Bears have already defeated the Packers and the Lions to go 2 - 0 in the division and going 3 - 0 in the division should set them up nicely to make a playoff bid. The Bears are healthy, missing no starters on either defense or offense and missing only one back up player on defense. Minnesota, on the other hand, is not as fortunate as the Bears. Minnesota is hurting with the loss of defensive end Erasmus James to a torn ACL. James joins safety Tank Williams (kneecap), linebacker Chad Greenway (knee) and cornerback Dovonte Edwards (arm) on the injured reserve. All of them were starters. Furthermore, Vikings leading receiver Troy Williamson is questionable for week 3 along with 3rd string wide receiver Marcus Robinson. Even if Williamson does play against the Bears, you can guarantee that he won’t last long because of the punishment he will receive getting drilled into the hard indoor Vikings turf.

The Bears defense has been stingy, holding opponents a dismal 2/20 3rd down conversion ratio. What does this mean? The Vikings will have to move the ball downfield quickly and have to utilize deeper routes to be successful or they will be punting the ball away a lot in this game. Do you feel comfortable having QB Brad Johnson, with a 57.4 % completion rating and the 16th best passer rating, along with virtually no scrambling capabilities (this is his 15 season in the NFL) to be able to by himself time to make the big downfield plays? Furthermore, with top receiver Troy Williamson (10 receptions this year, more than double of the second leading receiver with 4) questionable as of Friday, September 22, 2006 along with the third leading receiver Marcus Robinson the passing game should not be a threat and this forces the Vikings to run the ball against the Bears 8th ranked run defense which is allowing 74 yards per game. I don’t feel comfortable at all in the probability of Minnesota winning this game. Having to run against a tough Bears defense and still staying out of 3rd and 5 or more to go? Plus, Rex Grossman has his offense clicking. He has 3 receivers with more than 5 receptions and 2 receivers with 10 receptions. Also, he has the BEST passer rating in the NFL. The running game is balanced well with the two back system and therefore the Bears can hurt you all over the field and with almost any player. It’s the entire roster of the Chicago Bears vs. a couple select players from the Vikings… and it’s the best “TEAM” that will win a football game. Although the home team has won the last 8 decisions, and the Bears last win in Minny was 2001 (with a horrible team mind you, vs. the Vikings average to good teams in the past 5 years) the Bears definitely have the advantage in this game and everyone should gobble up this pick because they should be favoured by 7 or more, not 4 points. So, pro-line maniacs, pick the Bears to win this game by four points or more for the 1.80 odds. Point-Spread brothers, pick the bears to cover the 3.5 points they are favoured on point spread. Whatcha gonna do BROTHER, When the BEARS COME INTO TOWN HUNTING FOR YOU!!!!!

Favre is 21-9 against the Lions all time. Green Bay is 80-64-7 all time vs. Detroit, including the playoffs and therefore the easy bet is to take the Packers as this seems to be the week they will break out of their slump. If you are thinking this way you are thinking completely WRONG!! This is yet another huge NFC North divisional battle. With both teams coming into this game at 0 - 2 and needing a win, the question to ask yourself is "how has each team performed this year so far". The Packers have faced one tough opponent in the Bears and one suprise opponent in the Saints... both at home... both were losses. Detroit have faced the Seahawks at home and the Bears on the road and, in my opinion, just couldn't rebound emotionally and psychologically after the loss in Seattle. The lack of psychological focus was evident last week, as the Lions had three fumbles, committed 14 penalties and rushed for only 46 yards. Lets take this story a little further.

Both teams were embarrassed by a solid Bears team. However, the Lions battled the Seahawks to a 9 – 6 loss and Green Bay lost to New Orleans at home… something that hasn’t happened since the mid 1970s. Also, as a coach, it is very difficult to come back after a tough loss to a good team and be mentally sharp to play against another good team the next day or week. The Lions just weren’t prepared to play the Bears and it showed. However, Green Bay isn’t the same Green Bay as from previous years. They were shut out at home against the Bears, something that hasn’t happened and one of the worst home defeats that Green Bay has seen. Also, they lose to the Saints at home which hasn’t happened since 1974. So, what does this mean? History isn’t on the side of the Packers this year. Last, Favre is horrible playing in dome’s and with the trend of this season and the way the preparation week has shaped out, look for Favre to struggle (more so as a result of the team around him) on Sunday.

Both teams are relatively healthy with the Lions missing two starting defensive players and Green Bay missing one. Both offenses are healthy. So, the injury front shouldn't be an issue in this game but one look at the statistical side of the football will give us a glimpse of what will happen on Sunday. Both teams, offensively, just flat out can't run the football. The Packers have the 24th best rushing offense in the league while the Lions have the 31st best rushing offense. Defensively, both teams are pretty solid against the run as the Packers are ranked 11th while the Lions are ranked 15th. The tale of this game will be decided upon the passing game. Both teams are pretty good in the passing department, as the the Lions have the 14th best passing unit and the Packers have the 7th best passing offense. However, defensively, both teams are horrible against the pass with the Lions ranking 24th in the league and the Packer's ranking 31st. So, this tells us that both teams will be ineffective running the football and therefore it should be a shoot out as both teams will air the ball out to try and take advantage of the weaker pass defenses. However, Favre is absolutely HORRIBLE in dome fields, especially at the old Silverdome and current Ford Field in Detroit. Statistically, Favre is 15- 26 all time indoors overall and is 3 - 9 at the Silverdome/Ford Field. That's right, all of Favre's 9 losses against the Lions came at Detroit and furthermore, Favre is 3 - 3 since 2000 at Detroit and has lost his last two meetings in Detroit. Since 2000, the Lions overall record is 29 - 62 while the Packers are 56 - 41 including the playoffs and traditionally, the Lions have always played the Packers tough... even with a horrible team. So, the question is will a better Lions team overall be able to beat Favre and the horrible Packers indoors at Detroit? I think so.

A couple of years ago, if you said it was Jon Kitna and the Lions vs. Brett Favre and the Packers I would have picked the Packers to win, cover, or whatever. This year, with the way things have been going for both teams (Kitna has a 10 percent higher completion rating, and a passer rating 15.5 points higher than Favre along with no interceptions) I say that the Lions should control the ball, give up less turnovers, and with home field advantage (especially over Favre) win this game.. but it could be a wild one. Take the Lions to win on pro-line at 1.55 and to cover the 6.5 spread on point spread. BOOOOOOO YEAAAAAAAAA

Yet again we have another huge divisional battle, this time in the AFC South between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are 8 - 2 all time vs. the Jaguars with only 1 home loss during that span... and I don't see things chaning anytime soon. Not much has changed between these two teams over the past few years. Jacksonville is a decent team and the Colts are a good team waiting to become a great team. The true story underlining this game is between who will win the QB battle and how injuries will affect the make up of this game. Manning is better than Leftwich, but the numbers are similar. Leftwich has a slightly higher completion rating than Manning, but Leftwich has thrown 1 TD and 2 INT’s vs Mannings 6 TD’s and 1 INT. Also, Manning has a passer rating 26 points higher than Leftwich. Other receivers and running backs match up quite well… but the true story of how these numbers occurred and the road to both these teams going 2 – 0 is quite different. Jacksonville has the 11th best passing offense and the 10th best passing defense. Indianapolis has the best passing offense in the league (by quite a bit) and the 20th best past defense. Indianapolis held off a pesky N.Y Giants club (who is playing quite well) and demolished the Texans. The Jags beat a seemingly lost team in the Steelers and had a 7 point victory over Dallas. At home, and this being a big division game and the only real threatening team thus far on the Colts schedule until their bye week, look for the Colts to take this one home in a see-saw affair by a touch down since both teams are missing key defensive players.

On the injury side of the ball, Jacksonville has 5 defensive starters as questionable…. the Colts have 6 defensive starters as questionable. Indianapolis has 21 players in total who are questionable for Sunday vs. Jacksonville who has 14 players questionable. It also looks like Jacksonville’s leading receiver, Matt Jones, will be out for Sunday’s game. This puts a big whole in the Jaguars passing game but they still have a decent running attack and should be able to control the ball if they can establish the run. Indianapolis is healthy on offense however the question mark remains with the status of K Vinaterri. He has been questionable since week 1 and it looks like he will not start on Sunday. This is a big loss for the Colts as their back up kicker, who handles the punting duties, would be better off to punt the ball through the uprights than kick it... the guy is just horrible. HOWEVER, the rumour has it that retired all time leading kicker, Morten Andersen, will come out of retirement to play for the Colts possibly as early as this Sunday. Don't count on it, but we may see Andersen in a Colts uniform which would totally solidify the already potent Colts offense.

So, even though the Colts defense is quite bad all around, look for Manning and the Colts to have a field day against a very depleted Jags defense (who won't play as good as the 10th ranked defense should due to numerous key injuries) and for Leftwich to have a hard time keeping up on the scoreboard due to the abscence of WR Matt Jones. This will be a shoot out, but the Colts should win by a touchdown late in the 4th quarter. Take the Colts for the 1.55 on pro-line and the 6.5 spread on point spread. Over/Under bizatches, quit throwing your money away on luck and maybe consider investing it in the production of BLOODSPURT 2: THE RETURN OF KAMASATRA!

Mr. Karcha once told me “Ev, you have to be firm with your picks… this is why we couldn’t go in a draft together”. Well, this is my firm pick of the week. Baltimore all the way… no hesitation. The Ravens could have went up 28 – 0 in the 1st quarter against Oakland, but had problems punching it in… Cleveland numbers aren’t that much better than Oakland’s. Cleveland has the 30th ranked defense and 29th ranked offense compared to Baltimore’s number 1 ranked defense and 24th ranked offense in the NFL. The 29th ranked offense vs. the 1st ranked defense means that this game should be low scoring, especially on Cleveland’s side of the score board. Also, take into consideration that Baltimore’s next 3 dates are against San Diego, at Denver, and then home to Carolina… you can bet that Baltimore will do everything they can to go 3 – 0 before that stint occurs.

Injuries should also be a determining factor in this game. The Ravens are a little banged up, especially on Defense because they hit way too hard... I'm really not kidding. Baltimore has two running backs, Jamal Lewis and Musa Smith, listed as questionable for Sunday but reports indicate that Lewis should be good to go… although he will be banged up. On Defense, the Ravens have 4 starters injured, 3 of them listed as probable and 1 listed as questionable. OLB Adalius Thomas, MLB Ray Lewis, and CB Samari Rolle are all listed as probable to go and reports indicate that they should be able to play. Thomas is having a great start, Lewis is the definite spark of the defense and the only person that can ignite that Ravens D to be #1 in the league week to week. Samari Rolle is one of the best cover men in the entire NFL and although he is off to a slow start (playing banged up) he is coming around. Cleveland will miss WR Joe Juriviscious again this week and starting RB Rueben Droughns is Questionable this Sunday. Droughns is a decent third string NFL running back so his status is really not important. Missing Juriviscious, a hard nose and dependable WR, is a huge blow to the already horrible Browns offense. On defense, up to four starters will miss Sunday’s matchup against the Ravens. DE Orpheus Roy and OLB Willie McGinest are questionable for Sunday’s matchup while FS Brian Russell and CB Gary Baxter are doubtful for Sunday. Russell and Baxter have combined for 27 tackles in the first two games… that represents 20% of the tackles for the entire Brown’s defense (including 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string defensive players). You can bet that head coach Brian Billick and Offensive Co-ordinator Jim Fassel will be on Steve McNair and the Ravens offense to finish drives with a major… even look for Billick to leave the ball in McNair’s hands on 4th and less than two to get this offense going to support the very hard working Baltimore defense.

Last year the two teams split the season series with the home team winning each time. All time, the Ravens lead the series 9 – 5 with 4 of the 9 wins coming at Cleveland and all of them by 4 points or more. Many people are comparing this Ravens team with the 2000 team... and same with the Browns. If this is any indication, in 2000 the Ravens beat the Browns both times they met and by a total score of 56 – 7. So, all signs point to taking the Ravens at 1.55 on pro-line and to cover the 6.5 spread on point spread. Over/Under players should probably note that they should place a nicely sized muscle electrode onto their gootch because this is just as dumb as playing Over/Under (and funnier than hell too... make sure to watch Jackass 2: The Movie coming to theatre's soon).

This is possibly the best upset to bet on and no one has thought about it. Sure the 49rs might surprise the Eagles, Denver has a shot to beat the Patriots if they find the offense, and the Jets could dethrone the Bills but the Washington/Houston game is the true upset game of the week. Many people are jumping on the Skins, knowing that they are a better team than they have shown and that 4 points is a sinch over the Texans. These people could be very wrong. David Carr has a completion rating 20% higher and a passer rating 56 points higher than Brunnell. Palmer is yet to give up an interception. Washington just doesn’t have the QB to utilize the offensive weapons they posess. With big names such as WR’s Santana Moss, James Thrash, and Antwaan Randle El and RB Clinton Portis, this Washington Redskins team doesn’t score or possess an offensive spark that comes anywhere near their potential. This entire Redskins receiving core (including RB’s, WR’s and TE’s) have 330 receiving yards combined. Laveranues Coles of the NY Jets alone has 253 receiving yards. In fact, there are 19 receivers in the NFL that have at least half as many receiving yards individually than the Redskins have as a team. If Washington had a versatile QB with mobility, a decent arm, and flare for the game (i.e. Vick or Palmer) then this team would be a Super Bowl contender. Everyone knows the QB initializes and maintains the flow of the game… Brunnell simply does not have the talent to run with this team although he is a very savvy QB who won’t make any mistakes. However, this offense and the players within it are designed to be mobile, use the entire field, and make the big plays. Brunnell isn’t mobile, he is old school and if the pattern isn’t there or the coverage is a little iffy he will do the smart play and throw the ball away BUT he has been throwing it away too often. He doesn’t take risks and this offense is built around taking risks and making plays happen.

On the injury side, both offenses are healthy as Santana Moss and Clinton Portis will both play for the Redskins. Both teams are missing one starter on defense, which shouldn't be too significant. As an aside, the Texans first two games were against legit contenders in the Eagles and Colts of which Peyton Manning and Donavon McNabb are ranked one-two in the league for passing and fifth and sixth respectively for a passer rating. So granted, that young Texan’s D hasn’t had an easy road for the first two weeks and I think this is the game where they get their feet planted. Look for WR’s Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson to have a great game offensively for the Texans as well as controversial 1st round pick DE Mario Williams who should be able to get to the aging Brunnell in the “tight pocket” system the Redskins like to employ and thus get the media off his case. Go with the Texans as the sleeper upset of the week at home… if they are in it at half time, they will be able to pull away and thus they are worth the coin flip and going ALL-IN. So, pick the Texans at a clip 3.05 on pro-line and also to cover the 3.5 point spread in favour of the Redskins.

Thats it for now and I'm off to bed. Sorry about the lateness but I'm sure these picks were worth the wait.

I'm a Curse

Yes, its true, I am officially a curse. Lets go back to what happened last week. The Packers are up 13 - 0, Favre throws for over 325 yards, and the lonely Saints go into Lambeau Field and beat the Packers. WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON!!! I know the Saints have a fresh, new look and they should do better this year than they did last year. But 2 - 0 and looking to make a playoff push??? COME ON!! The Panther's, up 13 - 6 late in the game, pull off some stupid lateral punt return deep in they part of the field, cough it up, and end up letting the Viking's kicker, Ryan Longwell, to throw a 16 yard touchdown to tie the game and send it to overtime where the Vikings would later win the game on a field goal. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO THE PANTHER'S BEING A PLAYOFF CONTENDER!!! Last, the lonley Chiefs without starting QB Trent Green cover the spread (and almost beat) the Bronco's who aren't showing anyone that they are a threat this year.

However, there were some bright spots. The Bengal's and Raven's both showed that they are legitimate teams and did what they had and needed to do last Sunday which was win BIG. Credit the coaching staff of these two teams for developing a sound team philosophy, knowing their players, and having the player's buy in to a team love ticket. It really shows. Other bright spots were the Chargers and Cowboys who showed up to play and the SAN FRANSISCO 49rs who will win 6 games this year. That's right... before the Sunday contest I told Karcha that they would win 6 games this year because that team if very player orientated and they know that their battle is to come close or maybe even steal a playoff wildcard spot and you can tell by their play that they really really really like to battle and grind it out... no matter what the score is they will find a way back into the ball game.

So, this all lead's up to what happen's next Sunday. I say we stay away from the Panthers Bucs game, the Bengal's Steeler's game (however, if you want to pick a team, take the Bengals for the best shot at an upset), and the Giants Seahawks game (eeeeek, its hard to pick a spread or a winner with this game).

Week 1 Pro-Line Record ---> 1 - 4 ______ Week 1 Point Spread Record ---> 1 - 4
Week 2 Pro-Line Record ---> 2 - 3 ______ Week 2 Point Spread Record ---> 2 - 3

Ev's Overall Combined Record ---> 3 - 7

Week 2 Picks

Alright guys and girls, week 2 football is here. This past week I have been sick (literally) with some unkown condition which led me to throwing up at my place of practicum and scaring some kids cuz I had problems breathing. So what does this all mean??? A bunch of bad luck tends to bring about a streak of good luck. Here are my five picks for week 2. Last week entailed a bunch of upsets, home losses, and farm losses (just incase you were one of the millions of people who bet the farm on the panthers and bronco's showing up to play for a Superbowl Birth.... freaks). Anyway, the same system as last week. 5 games selected based on odds (no, i didn't play each 10 point favourite to win just to bolster my confidence), who's hot, who's not, history between the teams, coaching strategies, weather, etc.

Ev's Week 1 Record ---> 1 - 4

Ev's Overall Record ---> 1 - 4

How many dumbasses betting on over and under still ---> TOO MANY

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The story of selecting the Panther's in this game is two-fold. First, selecting the Panther's is a good odds and value bet. Getting 2.15 on pro-line and having to cover 2 points in this game against a totally redone Vikings team with a new quarterback, receiving core, and backfield makes you wonder if playing against an agressive Panther's defense will add up to another win. Remember, the Vikings beat the Redskins who went 0 -4 in the preseason and even though the Redskins will be a good team later on in the year, they simply weren't a good team last monday night against the Vikings. Second, even with the current concussion injury to the heart of the run defense in MLB Dan Morgan, don't think that he hasn't been talking to the D to get them ready for this game. There is more pressure on the Panther's to win this game than the Vikings and this team is built on living up to pressure and doing things the hard way. Expect the Panther's D to score in this game and Deshaun Foster to rush for over 100 yards.

Pick the Panther's straight up on Pro-line for 2.15 and have them cover the 1.5 points on point-spread. The all time series between these two teams is tied at 3 games a piece with Carolina spanking the Vinkings 38 -13 last year at home. With the rubber match meaning a lot this week, look for the Panther's to step it up. Over and Under players, suck on my Giggidy Giggidy Giggidy Giggidy Giggidy!!!!!

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Think of the t.v. show Drew Carey. Now think of the opening title song from a couple seasons ago when they are all dancing and hanging out and tailgating at an Indians game. Now, sing with me.... CLEVELAND SUCKS, CLEVELAND SUCKS, CLEVLAND SUCKS, CLE-E-E-VLEND SUCKS (background CLEVELAND SUCKS), CLEVELAND SUCKS, CLEVELAND SUCKS, CLEVLAND SUCKS!!! BA BA BA BA OHIO... HIO... HIO...HIO.... Now, do ya get the hint?!?! The Cincinati Bengals are on a mission this year to make the playoffs. Palmer is carrying the team and doesn't want the media spotlight because he only cares about a super bowl ring and thus doesn't want the distratction. C.J. on the other hand loves the media spotlight and the difference between him and T.O. is that C.J. wants to earn the hype... he outplays you and then shoves it in your face afterwards so you remember who the hell beat ya. This team really plays as a team... everyone understands their roles, accepts them, and finishes the play and blames only themself if they don't. This team is the only team that lived up to the hype as they walked into K.C. last week, as underdogs, and gave the Chiefs a shit kicking. Look for the Bengals to continue to play hard and get up big against the Browns. The only problem is that, if the Bengals get up big, can they stay mentally focused to hold the lead?

So, pick the Bengal's straight up on pro-line at the measly 1.25 and have them cover the 11 points on point spread. If you feel that 11 points is even a lot for the Browns to lose by then have the Browns cover the 11 points but still lose the game by at least a touch down. The story for the Cinci cover is simple... it's a battle between the Brown's need to play with the Bengals long enough to take advantage of a late mistake to steal the game vs the Bengal's need to play solid en route to achieving that elite football team status that many writers and critics won't give them a chance to obtian until they pummel the weaker teams soundly and pull of sound wins against solid football teams of which they have already started to do against the Chiefs last week. Over and Under players, I don't like you.

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Here is a gambler's game. You have America's new favourite team in the Saints (well, everyone wants them to win unless they are playing against your home team) and the struggling dynasty in the Packers. Anchored by the classiest and most pure football player in Brett Favre, the Packers will pull out the homedawg victory this Sunday. There are a couple factors pointing towards a packer win. First, the Packers have history on their side at home against the Saints as the Pack-Attack have dominated. In 19 games against the Saints, the Packers have only failed to win 5 times, twice at home. In four games against the Saints, Favre has thrown for 939 yards and 10 touchdowns with just one interception. In most recent history, the Packers pummeled the Saints 52 - 3 at Lambeau Field. Although Favre had a better supporting staff around him during those games, you have to expect Favre to pull his team through. His determination and heart will lift the Packers to a victory this Sunday. Expect Bush and Brees to have a big day for the Saints, but expect Favre to have a terrific day and the Packer defense to force a couple turnovers for points. This one will be decided in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter.

The Packers are getting 2.55 as the homedog on pro-line. Based on the team they are playing, this is the time to bet on them for the win. However, an even smarter player will pick the tie in pro-line on this game. Thats right, the TIE. Take the Packers to cover the 2 points that the Saints are favoured to win by on Point Spread. This pick is moredangerous than people think. It's Bush and Brees vs Favre and the deciding factor will be if the youngest team in football (being the Packers) can find a way to grow up and back up the heart and soul of football... Mr. Brett Favre.

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Well, well, well. The Ravens really look like they will make some noise this season. Lewis is looking phenomenal and the Ravens defense is quick yet punishing. They cover well, fill the holes, and meet the ball carrier at the point of scrimmage on the run. What I am very impressed by is their physical play. THEY HIT HARD!!!! Now, sitting at 1 - 0 and with the Raiders on the plate don't think that the Ravens don't know that opportunity is knocking on their door. The Raiders are simply horrible, with the worst record in the football since the last time they were in the Superbowl. They have no drive to win, and this was evident by the comments of their head coach Art Shell after the Monday night slaughter when was crying and feeling sorry for his team rather than showing the intensity to get back on the horse. The raiders are out coached, they don't have leadership, they won't win the QB battle, and there is no way that they will control the line of scrimmage against a very proud and hard working defensive front in the Ravens who may challenge the 9 sack performance of the Chargers from last monday night. Bill Billeck will have his team ready for this one. Cry baby Aaron Brooks might not play in this one and will use his hip as the excuse because he's "too good to be sacked that often". Air McNair will have a big day but the biggest performance will be from the Raven's D who might score more points defensively than the Raider's will offensively.

Pro-line, pick the Ravens at home for the measly sum of 1.25 and have them cover the 11 points they are favoured on Point Spread. I wouldn't want to watch this game, especially if my name is Art Shell.

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For this game we start with the history. The Broncos have never lost to Kansas City at Invesco Field, winning all five meetings since 2001. Denver won 30-10 last season and the home team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings. Furthermore, lets look at the team make ups. Both teams lost their first game. The Chiefs lost to a much better and well rounded Bengal's team. The Bronco's couldn't stop the ball control offense of the Rams and this took them out of the game. The offensive playbook of the Chiefs relies upon a QB who can make the proper decisions on the fly. Trent Green was the offfensive playmaster and he's out for at least a month. Stepping into his shoes is Damon Huard who is 5 - 1 as a starter but has mainly been a back up spot guy his whole career with Miami before he joined the Cheifs. So, the big question is whether or not that Huard can continue his magic. Against the Bronco's, I think it is unlikey that Huard will have a big day. He did go 12 - 20 against the Bengals with a TD in relief of Green but that won't be enough agains the Denver Bronco's who will put the A game together against the Chiefs. The Bronco's are backing up their QB and took the loss to the Rams VERY hard and their practice regimen has proven their intensity as they have requested more full out practices to get ready for the game... above what coach Shanahan planned.

Pro-line, pick the Bronco's to win straight up at 1.25. On point spread, I say flip a coin to decide wether or not to take the Bronco's and the points or pick the Bronco's to win but having the Chiefs cover the 11 points. The X factor is clearly K.C. QB Huard and whether or not he can continue his relief starter success. Personally, I'm taking Denver to win by 11 or more.

There you have it, Ev's five picks for Sunday. Let's hope I can get back on track here. Some of my picks might change from now until Sunday so I will keep you posted. One key game to keep an eye on is the Saints-Packers game as some new info has just come out and now I'm thinking of leaning towards the new look Saints but I think I will sleep on that one.

Other good picks to think about is taking the Lions to cover 8 points against the Bears which should be a low scoring affair. Also, taking the Rams for the pro line win and the 4 point cover on point spread looks pretty good right now as well and I might trade this match up with the Chiefs-Bronco's game but again I will sleep on this one as well.

What Ev Should be for Halloween

Once again I am in pursuit for a Halloween costume namely because I have to work Halloween night at a big Halloween party for kids. Last year, I was a 7 foot alien and in the end I was assaulted by a couple little indian hoodlums who broke my shoulder supports. The year before that, I had my fake knife stolen and was kicked several times in numerous places by probably the same group of bitchass punks. This year, I am ready for revenge!!!

So, here are my choices thus far... please feel free to leave a comment or two and I will officially choose my costume on September 26th (so I get it here in time).

Option #1 --> FRANK EEEEEEEEEEEEEE (with possible modifications)



Option #2 ---> OOMPA LOOMPA WHRREWWWW!!!! (Chose this one because we are both "tinted")



Option #3 --> ZOMBIE (It looks scary and with some work could be pretty wicked... METAL RULES!!!!!)



Option #4 ---> Headless Humphrey (I think this guys name could be Humphrey... with some work and strategic planning I could scare the hell out of a bunch of kids with this one.... on the down side I am victim to attack again by the Indian Posse)

Crazy Upsets... Should have played the underdog tickets today boys!

What the Hell Happened?!?! Today is a huge upset day and for no good reason!! Honestly, if you picked Atlanta, Baltimore, St. Louis, and the Jets and put $5 down on a pro-line, you would have come away with $450. However, those 4 teams had no business winning. The Patriots had no business needing a safety to beat the Bills by 2. Vick threw for 140 yards and beat the Panthers by 14?!?! Baltimore blanks Tampa Bay at Home by over 20 points?!! The Jets, with now apparent re-surged QB Chad Pennington walk into Tenesse and beat them soundly? The Saints go into Clevelend and beat a supposed playoff sleeper in the Browns? If you are a crazy old guy (or young kid with $4 to your name) you probably made a killing today and all I have to say is SCREW YOU!!!! Huge money day today in the sports select world but I figure not too many guys won because there were way too many upsets that shouldn't have happened and there were a few that should have and did (i.e. the Bengals over the Chiefs... the only pick out of 5 that I won on). So, this means another depressing week for myself... wondering if I am just a jinx and trying to figure all this out. The big thing to think about for next Sunday... the games will be even wierder but not to change the strategy... you can guarantee that teams that should have won this week (or came close to losing) will either win big (even upset if they need to) or go on a 3 - 4 game slide. Stay away from the Saints, Rams, and Steelers next week as they will find one way or another to screw you. This is depressing, horrible, and is going to make the next week of my life a week of impatient anxiety and looking forward to the Thursday odds release for sports select. So far, in the first 10 games of the season, only two favoured teams covered the spread!!! THAT MEANS THERE WERE 8 UPSETS IN THE FIRST 10 GAMES SO FAR!!! ALSO, ONLY 3 HOME TEAMS WON THEIR HOME OPENER OUT OF THE FIRST 10 GAMES.

Ev's Overall Record --> 1 - 4

What Ev has found out about himself this week.... I need to enjoy life more otherwise I am going to die an early death

Week 1 Picks

Here are my picks for the first week of the season. As you all know, I am a hopeless football gambler that usually comes within inches of winning but I always lose because I'm a curse. However, these picks have a chance for one reason or another. If you are HARD (and over the age of 18... 21 in some states) then read on but if you are gutless gongshow then go and visit this site (http://www.tinkerbell.com).

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Truly one of the best games to start the season. If you are playing pro-line pick the dolphins straight up for the win (2.45). If you are even more daring go for the tie (I think the dolphins will win by 5 or less). Smart point spread players will pick the dolphins (the steelers are favoured by 0.5 points). In the straight up pools, pick the dolphins for sure. Over and Under are for fags so go tap a donkey. The main reason for picking the dolphins is quite simple. Big Ben is out for this game and even though the Steelers D is pretty solid, they have always enjoyed playing with the lead or the confidence that Big Benwill win them the game if they keep it close. Also, SS Troy Polamalu will likely not play in this game and he is the spark plug for that defense and the team since Big Ben is out. Dante Culpepper and other offensive acquisitions for the Dolphins make this team a threat. Plus, with a new coaching staff, no big Ricky Williams distraction, and a young motivated defense, the Dolphins will pull this one out. If Big Ben and Polamalu plays, pick the Steelers.

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What is the rationale behind this game? It's simple, Holmes is out and Palmer is in. Along with the other problems such as the patch job offensive line for the Chiefs (and their torn apart defense), new defensive minded coach Herm Edwards, and the absence of Priest Holmes who will not play for at list the first 6 weeks of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs will not be able to play with the high powered offense of the Cincinati Bengals. Although the Cheifs beat the Bengals 37 - 3 last season, Carson Palmer (along with every other starter) sat for 90% of the game because they had already clinched a playoff birth... the Chiefs I believe were still in the hunt. Also, RB Larry Johnson won't have the same year that he did last year. Thus, anticipating that Johnson won't have the big plays this game, and with Herm Edwards ball control offensive style mixed with the Bengals explosive offense, the Bengals will win this game by 10 points on the road. Thus, if playing Pro-Line, take the Bengals at a healthy 2.75 for the win straight up. If playing Point-Spread on this game take the bengals to cover the 2.5 points that K.C. is favoured. Straight up in the pools, take the Bengals and earn yourself the edge that you need. Once again, if you want to play over under SCREW OFF!!

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This one is easy money. Although I'm a Falcons fan, Atlanta is gonna have a hell of a Sunday with the Carolina Panthers. Don't doubt yourself, the Panthers are the cream of the crop in the NFC and most people are still skeptical. They haven't lost any notable players and have added a bunch of talent that is healthy. They've added Keyshawn Johnson to back up Smith at WR and DeAngelo Williams to back up DeShaun Forester at RB. Even with Smith not being 100% with his hamstrings, the Panthers still have 1001 ways to beat you. Also, look for the now solidified and punishing Carolina Defense to put Vick on the DL. Currently ranked number 2 in the power rankings, they will be ranked number 1 after they crush Michael Vick and the Falcons while the Steelers lose a tough one to the Dolphins. So, Pro-Line guys pick Carolina at a healthy 1.60 to bolster that 5 pick combo a bit while Point Spread maniacs can expect the Panthers to cover the 6 points. Pool Players, take your possible NFC Super Bowl contender in the first week in a walk over the Falcons. Over and Under, go to hell!!

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Well, this game features probably two of the top 5 defenses in the league so the big question is who will make the least amount of mistakes offensively. I think QB Chris Simms is ready to come out of his shell and have a decent season and it starts with this game. Another reason to pick this game is that it seems to be the only other logical home team pick to have the best chance of winning as almost all other home teams this week are the underdog by quite a bit or favoured by a field goal or less. Stats show that the home team has won 61% of the time in the past five seasons (however, there have been weeks where only 1 or 2 home teams have used home field advantage properly and vice versa with the visiting team) so this is another reason to go with the home team on this one. Remember, when in any doubt with a close game pick the home team... don't force yourself to believe in an upset unless it jumps out at you. On pro-line, you can swing one of two ways. I really like the tie in this game at 3.20 but if you are squeemish about ties then take the Bucs at 2.00. This is a good point spread game with the Bucs favoured by a field goal. Look for them to have last posession and win it with a last second field goal (or probably have them block a game tieing field goal). Pool Players, it's the Bucs this Sunday for win number 4.Over Under people I have a couple words of caution for you..... "THUNDER" (Ev looks at right bicep) "LIGHTNING" (Ev looks at his left bicep) "DON'T GET CAUGHT IN THE STORM" (Ev gives you the full flex)... BIATCH

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Well, here is the last pick. Although there are some other tantalizing picks, like the Bears over the Packers and the Lions possibly upsetting the Seahawks, I like this game as that sleeper road lock to put you ahead of the pack in the straight up win pools and to give you a solid pick to solidify that kinda dangerous first week sports select football ticket. The logic behind the Bronco's winning this game? THEY ARE A SUPER BOWL CONTENDER!!!! They will light it up because they know how to attack on both offense and defense. They look solid all around and it will be tough to find the holes on this team. Mike Shanahan will out coach new Rams head coach Scott Linehan who will over coach this game... starting his notable ball control style offense and then try to go out of character to catch up to the ever attacking Bronco's. Look for the Bronco's to fly on the inside turf in St. Louis (this will be a fast and exciting game to watch) and get up to an early 10 or 14 - 0 lead. This game could be a blow out quite early if the Rams D isn't there to step it up and the Bronco's shut down the Rams running game and keep them off the field. On Pro-Line, take the Bronco's straight up at 1.80. Point Spread is where this game is at, as I really like 4 points Denver has to cover. Pool Players, it's Bronco's straight up for the win. Over and Under betters, please visit Arnold's Pizzzza Shop and order something crazy like pineapple on your pizza (I KILL U).

Happy Birthday Ev - I LOVE YOU!!!

Yes, yes, yes... tis my birthday. I think birthday's are a little over-rated but I don't mind them. The rush to find a present is usually meaningless and I think just a courtesy thing for most birthdays except ones from 1 to 12, 16, 18, 19, 21, 50, 75, and above. The one thing I would like for my birthday is a simple addition to this blog... something witty, funny, disturbing, but nothing that will have me thrown in jail. Today is the day I also start my practicum, of which I am skeptical and not very enthused about. Therefore, listed below are the three things I would rather be doing today... if you can help make them happen then let me know:

1. Race Denis with a tricycle (you all know who Denis is.... DEENIIIISSS)
2. Take the Stanza to the dirt bike course for a "farewell" cruise (its either this or replace both axles, the passenger stabilizer bar, struts, shocks, and bearings).
3. NHL 2006, McDonald's, Craig, Garrett, StoneFace... Dwayne, Beer, and Napalm (nuff said).

Here We Go

Here they are... the first words on this cafluffle. I am confined to having this template look like the millions of others just like it because I have yet to figure out how to change it to my specifications but I do hope that I will be able to re-learn my comp 100. 3 skills which allowed me to have tons of fun making disturbing programs to hand in to my professor (who, I might add, rewarded me for my disturbing and controversial class projects).

Some of you may wonder why I started this. Why is Ev doing this? It's quite simple actually.... I need to find out what I'm all about. Throughout my life I have compared my traits, characteristics, likes, dislikes, hates, loves, power(less) to those I have met, heard of, or read about. It is great to search deep into yourself and to know who you are and what you are all about, but it is even more disturbing to realize you've uncovered nothing but a deep mask. Am I who you think I am or am I who you think I should be because I fit in to the type of person you need in your life. What I hope to do is to definitively discover the rest of me and to take you along this road while I do this.


What EV?