What EV?

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Week 3 Recap: A Sunday of Firsts

Week 3 was a week of firsts... kinda like this guys face after the first time he got laid... can you see the confusion, the awe, the determination to remember and explain everything that happened... this is what most nfl game day gamblers looked like after Sunday's games were finished. Sad as it may be, this guy was more lucky than almost all nfl betters this past Sunday and it was all because last Sunday was a "Sunday of Firsts".

Well, lets see what happened last week. Brunnell actually finds a way to gel with the many weapons of the Redskins offense and goes 22/22 to break the nfl record consecutive pass record and 24/27 overall. Favre finds a way to win his first game of the season, in Detroit, in the dome, with a horrible Green Bay Packer team... during the game even he looked suprised as to the catches and plays his team made. The Bears defense goes 5 - 15 on 3rd down conversions... before this game they only allowed two 3rd down conversions both of which were under 3 yards.... the Vikings converted three 3rd down conversions over 6 yards a piece... meanwhile Rex Grossman, the young QB stud and 1st overall in the QB passer rating, throws 2 interceptions... his first two interceptions of the season. The Ravens show they are human and need a 4th quarter comeback of 12 points to BEAT THE BROWNS by 1 point... they were favoured by 7 points. The Ravens outscored the Browns 56 - 7 last year... and the Browns were a little better last year while the Ravens were quite worse. This was the first game that Cleveland QB Frye threw for over 250 yards (298) and for the first time he didn't have more interceptions than touchdowns. Heleads his team in rushing (the first and only quarterback to do so in the league thus far) against the Ravens #1 OVERALL DEFENSE??~!?! You gotta be kidding me. The only team to show up and cover the spread out of my games picked was the Indianapolis Colts who scored 21 points against an injury riddled Jacksonville defense that pretty much had the entire 2nd string playing for the second half.... however, Peyton Manning completed under 50% of his passes (45% to be exact) which is the first time he has completed under 50% of his passes this year, and as of my calculations, the second time in 5 years... the first time Manning completed under 50% of his passes was last year against, you guessed it, Jacksonville!!

So, what does this all mean? Well, I figure it doesn't mean that I'm a cursed (many experts won or covered on only 5 or 6 games out of the entire week 3 schedule) but that finally, the nfl has evened out and most teams are playing on an level playing field. There are no more jugernauts in the league this year... coaches and technologies have caught up with the game and now it's a constant chess match to gain the momentum. The only given is that the team that establishes momentum early and withstands adversity soon after, goes on to win the game. Also, week 3 was the coalesce point of the NFL season, which usually appears in week 9 or 10. From now on each game is huge as it seems that, on "Any Given Sunday", almost anything can happen. So, even 0-3 teams aren't out of the playoff hunt... not by a long shot... even 10 point underdogs look really good to bet on this year. For the first time in years, NFL pool players and betters must insert the "luck" variable into the equation to determine a winner. On the bright side, small bets are looking to pay off big!!!!

Week 1 Pro-Line Record ---> 1 - 4 ______ Week 1 Point Spread Record ---> 1 - 4
Week 2 Pro-Line Record ---> 2 - 3 ______ Week 2 Point Spread Record ---> 2 - 3
Week 3 Pro-Line Record ---> 1 - 4 ______ Week 3 Point Spread Record ---> 1 - 4

Ev's Overall Combined Record 4 - 11

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