Week 3 Picks

Here we are in Week 3 and there are many question marks over many teams and players. Everything seems tight this year as the top 10 favourites to make the post season are beginning to be ousted by a barrage of suprise teams. This makes every week important and most games hard to predict. However, it's good to see that the playing field is starting to even out around the league which creates much better odds for betting (especially on the under dog). So, the story for this week is to stay away from a couple key games such as Cincinatti at Pittsburgh and the New York Giants at the Seattle Seahawks. Even though I could mention a couple other games, I'd rather point to the fact that there may be 4 - 6 decent games to bet on that don't include a huge range of tangibles, variables, etc. So, here are my 5 "FIRM" locks for this Sunday.

This is a huge divisional battle in the NFC North division. Both teams are at 2 - 0 but the Bears have already defeated the Packers and the Lions to go 2 - 0 in the division and going 3 - 0 in the division should set them up nicely to make a playoff bid. The Bears are healthy, missing no starters on either defense or offense and missing only one back up player on defense. Minnesota, on the other hand, is not as fortunate as the Bears. Minnesota is hurting with the loss of defensive end Erasmus James to a torn ACL. James joins safety Tank Williams (kneecap), linebacker Chad Greenway (knee) and cornerback Dovonte Edwards (arm) on the injured reserve. All of them were starters. Furthermore, Vikings leading receiver Troy Williamson is questionable for week 3 along with 3rd string wide receiver Marcus Robinson. Even if Williamson does play against the Bears, you can guarantee that he won’t last long because of the punishment he will receive getting drilled into the hard indoor Vikings turf.

The Bears defense has been stingy, holding opponents a dismal 2/20 3rd down conversion ratio. What does this mean? The Vikings will have to move the ball downfield quickly and have to utilize deeper routes to be successful or they will be punting the ball away a lot in this game. Do you feel comfortable having QB Brad Johnson, with a 57.4 % completion rating and the 16th best passer rating, along with virtually no scrambling capabilities (this is his 15 season in the NFL) to be able to by himself time to make the big downfield plays? Furthermore, with top receiver Troy Williamson (10 receptions this year, more than double of the second leading receiver with 4) questionable as of Friday, September 22, 2006 along with the third leading receiver Marcus Robinson the passing game should not be a threat and this forces the Vikings to run the ball against the Bears 8th ranked run defense which is allowing 74 yards per game. I don’t feel comfortable at all in the probability of Minnesota winning this game. Having to run against a tough Bears defense and still staying out of 3rd and 5 or more to go? Plus, Rex Grossman has his offense clicking. He has 3 receivers with more than 5 receptions and 2 receivers with 10 receptions. Also, he has the BEST passer rating in the NFL. The running game is balanced well with the two back system and therefore the Bears can hurt you all over the field and with almost any player. It’s the entire roster of the Chicago Bears vs. a couple select players from the Vikings… and it’s the best “TEAM” that will win a football game. Although the home team has won the last 8 decisions, and the Bears last win in Minny was 2001 (with a horrible team mind you, vs. the Vikings average to good teams in the past 5 years) the Bears definitely have the advantage in this game and everyone should gobble up this pick because they should be favoured by 7 or more, not 4 points. So, pro-line maniacs, pick the Bears to win this game by four points or more for the 1.80 odds. Point-Spread brothers, pick the bears to cover the 3.5 points they are favoured on point spread. Whatcha gonna do BROTHER, When the BEARS COME INTO TOWN HUNTING FOR YOU!!!!!

Favre is 21-9 against the Lions all time. Green Bay is 80-64-7 all time vs. Detroit, including the playoffs and therefore the easy bet is to take the Packers as this seems to be the week they will break out of their slump. If you are thinking this way you are thinking completely WRONG!! This is yet another huge NFC North divisional battle. With both teams coming into this game at 0 - 2 and needing a win, the question to ask yourself is "how has each team performed this year so far". The Packers have faced one tough opponent in the Bears and one suprise opponent in the Saints... both at home... both were losses. Detroit have faced the Seahawks at home and the Bears on the road and, in my opinion, just couldn't rebound emotionally and psychologically after the loss in Seattle. The lack of psychological focus was evident last week, as the Lions had three fumbles, committed 14 penalties and rushed for only 46 yards. Lets take this story a little further.

Both teams were embarrassed by a solid Bears team. However, the Lions battled the Seahawks to a 9 – 6 loss and Green Bay lost to New Orleans at home… something that hasn’t happened since the mid 1970s. Also, as a coach, it is very difficult to come back after a tough loss to a good team and be mentally sharp to play against another good team the next day or week. The Lions just weren’t prepared to play the Bears and it showed. However, Green Bay isn’t the same Green Bay as from previous years. They were shut out at home against the Bears, something that hasn’t happened and one of the worst home defeats that Green Bay has seen. Also, they lose to the Saints at home which hasn’t happened since 1974. So, what does this mean? History isn’t on the side of the Packers this year. Last, Favre is horrible playing in dome’s and with the trend of this season and the way the preparation week has shaped out, look for Favre to struggle (more so as a result of the team around him) on Sunday.

Both teams are relatively healthy with the Lions missing two starting defensive players and Green Bay missing one. Both offenses are healthy. So, the injury front shouldn't be an issue in this game but one look at the statistical side of the football will give us a glimpse of what will happen on Sunday. Both teams, offensively, just flat out can't run the football. The Packers have the 24th best rushing offense in the league while the Lions have the 31st best rushing offense. Defensively, both teams are pretty solid against the run as the Packers are ranked 11th while the Lions are ranked 15th. The tale of this game will be decided upon the passing game. Both teams are pretty good in the passing department, as the the Lions have the 14th best passing unit and the Packers have the 7th best passing offense. However, defensively, both teams are horrible against the pass with the Lions ranking 24th in the league and the Packer's ranking 31st. So, this tells us that both teams will be ineffective running the football and therefore it should be a shoot out as both teams will air the ball out to try and take advantage of the weaker pass defenses. However, Favre is absolutely HORRIBLE in dome fields, especially at the old Silverdome and current Ford Field in Detroit. Statistically, Favre is 15- 26 all time indoors overall and is 3 - 9 at the Silverdome/Ford Field. That's right, all of Favre's 9 losses against the Lions came at Detroit and furthermore, Favre is 3 - 3 since 2000 at Detroit and has lost his last two meetings in Detroit. Since 2000, the Lions overall record is 29 - 62 while the Packers are 56 - 41 including the playoffs and traditionally, the Lions have always played the Packers tough... even with a horrible team. So, the question is will a better Lions team overall be able to beat Favre and the horrible Packers indoors at Detroit? I think so.

A couple of years ago, if you said it was Jon Kitna and the Lions vs. Brett Favre and the Packers I would have picked the Packers to win, cover, or whatever. This year, with the way things have been going for both teams (Kitna has a 10 percent higher completion rating, and a passer rating 15.5 points higher than Favre along with no interceptions) I say that the Lions should control the ball, give up less turnovers, and with home field advantage (especially over Favre) win this game.. but it could be a wild one. Take the Lions to win on pro-line at 1.55 and to cover the 6.5 spread on point spread. BOOOOOOO YEAAAAAAAAA

Yet again we have another huge divisional battle, this time in the AFC South between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are 8 - 2 all time vs. the Jaguars with only 1 home loss during that span... and I don't see things chaning anytime soon. Not much has changed between these two teams over the past few years. Jacksonville is a decent team and the Colts are a good team waiting to become a great team. The true story underlining this game is between who will win the QB battle and how injuries will affect the make up of this game. Manning is better than Leftwich, but the numbers are similar. Leftwich has a slightly higher completion rating than Manning, but Leftwich has thrown 1 TD and 2 INT’s vs Mannings 6 TD’s and 1 INT. Also, Manning has a passer rating 26 points higher than Leftwich. Other receivers and running backs match up quite well… but the true story of how these numbers occurred and the road to both these teams going 2 – 0 is quite different. Jacksonville has the 11th best passing offense and the 10th best passing defense. Indianapolis has the best passing offense in the league (by quite a bit) and the 20th best past defense. Indianapolis held off a pesky N.Y Giants club (who is playing quite well) and demolished the Texans. The Jags beat a seemingly lost team in the Steelers and had a 7 point victory over Dallas. At home, and this being a big division game and the only real threatening team thus far on the Colts schedule until their bye week, look for the Colts to take this one home in a see-saw affair by a touch down since both teams are missing key defensive players.

On the injury side of the ball, Jacksonville has 5 defensive starters as questionable…. the Colts have 6 defensive starters as questionable. Indianapolis has 21 players in total who are questionable for Sunday vs. Jacksonville who has 14 players questionable. It also looks like Jacksonville’s leading receiver, Matt Jones, will be out for Sunday’s game. This puts a big whole in the Jaguars passing game but they still have a decent running attack and should be able to control the ball if they can establish the run. Indianapolis is healthy on offense however the question mark remains with the status of K Vinaterri. He has been questionable since week 1 and it looks like he will not start on Sunday. This is a big loss for the Colts as their back up kicker, who handles the punting duties, would be better off to punt the ball through the uprights than kick it... the guy is just horrible. HOWEVER, the rumour has it that retired all time leading kicker, Morten Andersen, will come out of retirement to play for the Colts possibly as early as this Sunday. Don't count on it, but we may see Andersen in a Colts uniform which would totally solidify the already potent Colts offense.

So, even though the Colts defense is quite bad all around, look for Manning and the Colts to have a field day against a very depleted Jags defense (who won't play as good as the 10th ranked defense should due to numerous key injuries) and for Leftwich to have a hard time keeping up on the scoreboard due to the abscence of WR Matt Jones. This will be a shoot out, but the Colts should win by a touchdown late in the 4th quarter. Take the Colts for the 1.55 on pro-line and the 6.5 spread on point spread. Over/Under bizatches, quit throwing your money away on luck and maybe consider investing it in the production of BLOODSPURT 2: THE RETURN OF KAMASATRA!

Mr. Karcha once told me “Ev, you have to be firm with your picks… this is why we couldn’t go in a draft together”. Well, this is my firm pick of the week. Baltimore all the way… no hesitation. The Ravens could have went up 28 – 0 in the 1st quarter against Oakland, but had problems punching it in… Cleveland numbers aren’t that much better than Oakland’s. Cleveland has the 30th ranked defense and 29th ranked offense compared to Baltimore’s number 1 ranked defense and 24th ranked offense in the NFL. The 29th ranked offense vs. the 1st ranked defense means that this game should be low scoring, especially on Cleveland’s side of the score board. Also, take into consideration that Baltimore’s next 3 dates are against San Diego, at Denver, and then home to Carolina… you can bet that Baltimore will do everything they can to go 3 – 0 before that stint occurs.

Injuries should also be a determining factor in this game. The Ravens are a little banged up, especially on Defense because they hit way too hard... I'm really not kidding. Baltimore has two running backs, Jamal Lewis and Musa Smith, listed as questionable for Sunday but reports indicate that Lewis should be good to go… although he will be banged up. On Defense, the Ravens have 4 starters injured, 3 of them listed as probable and 1 listed as questionable. OLB Adalius Thomas, MLB Ray Lewis, and CB Samari Rolle are all listed as probable to go and reports indicate that they should be able to play. Thomas is having a great start, Lewis is the definite spark of the defense and the only person that can ignite that Ravens D to be #1 in the league week to week. Samari Rolle is one of the best cover men in the entire NFL and although he is off to a slow start (playing banged up) he is coming around. Cleveland will miss WR Joe Juriviscious again this week and starting RB Rueben Droughns is Questionable this Sunday. Droughns is a decent third string NFL running back so his status is really not important. Missing Juriviscious, a hard nose and dependable WR, is a huge blow to the already horrible Browns offense. On defense, up to four starters will miss Sunday’s matchup against the Ravens. DE Orpheus Roy and OLB Willie McGinest are questionable for Sunday’s matchup while FS Brian Russell and CB Gary Baxter are doubtful for Sunday. Russell and Baxter have combined for 27 tackles in the first two games… that represents 20% of the tackles for the entire Brown’s defense (including 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string defensive players). You can bet that head coach Brian Billick and Offensive Co-ordinator Jim Fassel will be on Steve McNair and the Ravens offense to finish drives with a major… even look for Billick to leave the ball in McNair’s hands on 4th and less than two to get this offense going to support the very hard working Baltimore defense.

Last year the two teams split the season series with the home team winning each time. All time, the Ravens lead the series 9 – 5 with 4 of the 9 wins coming at Cleveland and all of them by 4 points or more. Many people are comparing this Ravens team with the 2000 team... and same with the Browns. If this is any indication, in 2000 the Ravens beat the Browns both times they met and by a total score of 56 – 7. So, all signs point to taking the Ravens at 1.55 on pro-line and to cover the 6.5 spread on point spread. Over/Under players should probably note that they should place a nicely sized muscle electrode onto their gootch because this is just as dumb as playing Over/Under (and funnier than hell too... make sure to watch Jackass 2: The Movie coming to theatre's soon).

This is possibly the best upset to bet on and no one has thought about it. Sure the 49rs might surprise the Eagles, Denver has a shot to beat the Patriots if they find the offense, and the Jets could dethrone the Bills but the Washington/Houston game is the true upset game of the week. Many people are jumping on the Skins, knowing that they are a better team than they have shown and that 4 points is a sinch over the Texans. These people could be very wrong. David Carr has a completion rating 20% higher and a passer rating 56 points higher than Brunnell. Palmer is yet to give up an interception. Washington just doesn’t have the QB to utilize the offensive weapons they posess. With big names such as WR’s Santana Moss, James Thrash, and Antwaan Randle El and RB Clinton Portis, this Washington Redskins team doesn’t score or possess an offensive spark that comes anywhere near their potential. This entire Redskins receiving core (including RB’s, WR’s and TE’s) have 330 receiving yards combined. Laveranues Coles of the NY Jets alone has 253 receiving yards. In fact, there are 19 receivers in the NFL that have at least half as many receiving yards individually than the Redskins have as a team. If Washington had a versatile QB with mobility, a decent arm, and flare for the game (i.e. Vick or Palmer) then this team would be a Super Bowl contender. Everyone knows the QB initializes and maintains the flow of the game… Brunnell simply does not have the talent to run with this team although he is a very savvy QB who won’t make any mistakes. However, this offense and the players within it are designed to be mobile, use the entire field, and make the big plays. Brunnell isn’t mobile, he is old school and if the pattern isn’t there or the coverage is a little iffy he will do the smart play and throw the ball away BUT he has been throwing it away too often. He doesn’t take risks and this offense is built around taking risks and making plays happen.

On the injury side, both offenses are healthy as Santana Moss and Clinton Portis will both play for the Redskins. Both teams are missing one starter on defense, which shouldn't be too significant. As an aside, the Texans first two games were against legit contenders in the Eagles and Colts of which Peyton Manning and Donavon McNabb are ranked one-two in the league for passing and fifth and sixth respectively for a passer rating. So granted, that young Texan’s D hasn’t had an easy road for the first two weeks and I think this is the game where they get their feet planted. Look for WR’s Eric Moulds and Andre Johnson to have a great game offensively for the Texans as well as controversial 1st round pick DE Mario Williams who should be able to get to the aging Brunnell in the “tight pocket” system the Redskins like to employ and thus get the media off his case. Go with the Texans as the sleeper upset of the week at home… if they are in it at half time, they will be able to pull away and thus they are worth the coin flip and going ALL-IN. So, pick the Texans at a clip 3.05 on pro-line and also to cover the 3.5 point spread in favour of the Redskins.

Thats it for now and I'm off to bed. Sorry about the lateness but I'm sure these picks were worth the wait.