Once again sorry for the late posting but to get quality picks you have to do some quality thinking (actually, I was watching a copy of Mr. Karcha's "Little Monster's" for the past 45 minutes). Anyway's this week is a GAMBLING week. The variables of almost each game this Sunday add up to “flip a coin and pick a team”. However, I’m not going to play like that. Instead, I’m going to show you the game behind the game of my five locks for Sunday and then add in that luck factor to determine the winner. I’ve decided that my approach isn’t that flawed, but that emotions, back stories, coaching staffs, and rivalries (the luck factor) are/is a much larger factor this year in selecting a winner than in years previous. So, the strategy for picking winners is to attack the games! Meaning, I’m not going to shy away from the tough games that most people won’t bet on… I’m going to attack these games and prove to you why my picks will win.
Lets begin this matchup by looking at the injuries. On the injury front, the Jets have a some bumps and bruises but all of the key players should be fine and ready to go for Sunday. The Colts aren’t a physically dominating team so look for players like QB Chad Pennington and WR Laveranues Coles to be fine throughout the entire game. Defensively, there are a couple players listed as probable on the starting defense but these players were all listed as probables last week and they all played, and for the most part, played well. Without the Colts possessing a decent running attack (ranked 24th in the NFL), look for these players to last the entire game and do quite well. The one thing this Jets D does well is disguise blitz’s and put pressure on the quarterback… traditionally, their scheme has done well vs. Colts QB Peyton Manning and this trend should continue this Sunday at Giants Stadium.
For the Colts, the bumps and bruises have healed on offense and there are no notable injuries to report. Defensively, the Colts have 12 players listed as either Questionable or out. The big loss is FS Bob Sanders who is out for week 4 vs. the Jets. He is the only reason why the Colts can stop the run and his absence was felt last week vs. the Jags as the Jags ran at will and really controlled the flow of the game. Along with 5 injuries on the defensive line and two notable injuries in the linebacking core, I think that the Colts will be hard pressed to stop the run this week. Even if these players do play (and some have been listed as questionable since week 1 or 2 and have played each week) they will not be 100% and even at 100% this Colts D just can’t figure out the run. Also, note that 4 out of the 5 cornerbacks for the Colts are banged up and even though they might play, they won’t be 100% either. Therefore, Jets QB Chad Pennington looks to be a good bet on having one of the top 5 QB passer ratings this Sunday.
Offensively the Jets rank 15th overall in the NFL. They have the 7th best passing offense and the 27th best rushing offense. Defensively, the Jets rank 29th overall with the 26th best passing defense and the 25th best rushing defense. Offensively, they have been able to maintain ball control and thus force the opposing offense to strike quickly, which if they don’t, can be extremely frustrating. The problem with the Jets defense is that they can’t anticipate the play. To me, it seems that they anticipate the wrong play every time (thinking run when it’s a pass, thinking pass when it’s a run) because they give too much respect to the run game and thus they throw themselves off balance. However, when they make the right decisions and show composure, the Jets D plays like a top 5 ranked defense.
Offensively, the Colts rank 5th overall in the NFL. They have the 2nd best passing offense and the 24th best rushing offense. Defensively, the Colts rank 22nd overall with the 7th best passing offense and the 28th best rushing defense. Offensively, Peyton Manning can score at will if his offensive line and receivers can be on the same page. Manning is a rhythm and momentum QB. This means that he likes to establish these two things in a came to build a big lead and then just do some ball control offense to eat the clock. Defensively, the Colts are just an average team. However, the achilles heel of this team is the run defense. Not only do they give up a lot of yards, they allow for teams to keep possession of the ball and thus take away opportunities for Manning’s quick strike offense. Also, the horrible run defense is beginning to disrupt the flow of the Colts entire game plan which is allowing for opposing teams to open up the playbook and go shot for shot against the Colts…. something the Colts do not want to do.
Last week, I made the case about how Favre struggles indoors, in the dome, and especially at the Silverdome/Ford Field. However, in week 2, Favre did have a very good game against the Saints and this seemed to carry over to week 3 in Detorit. Favre had a career day at Ford Field (his best game in a dome ever) and the Packers won the contest. This week, I make the same case with Peyton Manning. Manning is 2-3 against the Jets at Giants Stadium. The Colts have been outscored 149-84 in those games. In his last trip to face the Jets in New York, Indianapolis lost 41-0 in a 2002 wild-card game. It's the only time Manning has been shut out in 140 career contests. The two-time MVP threw for 137 yards with two interceptions in his playoff loss to New York. In his career, Manning has nine interceptions and five touchdowns against the Jets at Giants Stadium. Thus, like Jacksonville Jaguars, the NY Jets are a thorn in the heel of Peyton Manning. And the reason being is that both teams have a ball control offense that throws Peyton Manning off his rhythm. Manning likes to be on the field and work quickly, and these teams seem to disrupt the rhythm that Manning likes to work with. Neither the Jaguars or the Jets do anything extra special defensively or offensively, but their overall game plan and playing style seems to work against Peyton Manning. Now, even though the Colts are 39-25 against the Jets, their highest win total against any opponent, the record of interest is how Peyton Manning plays against the Jets at Giant’s Field. This is the one weak link in Peyton Manning’s armour and with first in the AFC East on the line for the Jets, I think this is one reason to pick the Jets to keep this game close and possibly win it late in the 4th quarter.
LUCK FACTOR --> Look for the injuries to pile up on the Colts this Sunday and for the Jets D to gain confidence and play their best game of the season against Manning and the Colts. Also, look for Jets QB Chad Pennington to have a F^@#$*G phenomenal game along with the Jets “run by committee” running game. So, the smart play for this game is on Point Spread. Have the Jets cover the 9.5 points the Colts are favoured by and pick the Colts to win on pro-line @ 1.30. That’s right, you all know that I’m crazy and I always make the wrong selections but this game will come down to the wire, whether it be high scoring or low scoring, the game will be decided late in the 4th quarter. Don’t expect the Jets to win this game, but do expect them to stay close… defensively they have made the adjustments from last week (475 offensive yards given up) and won’t be that horrible against Manning and the Colts.
This is a tough game to grasp. If this game was to happen in week 3, I would have picked the Bills. However, after last week’s performance from both teams, I am going to side with the Vikings. These teams are clean, meaning there is nothing that they do terribly wrong or extremely well. The X factor of this match up is opportunities. The question is which team capitalizes the most on opportunities, creates more opportunities, allows the least amount of opportunities for the other team, etc. The answer is the Vikings. The Bills have been plagued by not capitalizing on their opportunities and giving up a lot of opportunities. This was really evident against the Patriots and the Jets. The Vikings don’t give up a lot of opportunities and really capitalize on almost every opportunity, big or small. This has allowed them to stay in and play with every team thus far. This includes shutting down the Bears offense, moving the ball against the bears offense, shutting down that great Redskins offense, taking advantage of the Panther’s mistakes, shutting down the Panthers offense, etc. The Vikings have passed the test, going 2 – 1 against three solid opponents while the Bills are 1 – 2 against possibly only one solid opponent in the New England Patriots.
By the numbers, the QB comparison looks tight on paper. Vikings QB Brad Johnson has a 60.9% completion rating. Bills QB J.P Losman has a 60.8% completion rate. Johnson has thrown for 660 passing yards while Losman has thrown for a respectable 575 passing yards in 3 games. Johnson has a respectable 81.8 passer rating however Losman is boasting an 86.2 passer rating. Johnson has thrown for 1TD and 1INT while Losman has thrown for 2TD’s and 1INT. So, both QB’s have relatively equal statistics on paper, but sometimes paper can lie. Losman threw for 247 yards combined in his first two games. He threw for 328 yards against a bad Jets passing defense (ranked 26th in the league) who had a bad defensive game overall, but took advantage of some key Bills mistakes and turnovers. Previous, Losman threw for 164 yards against the Patriots now 22nd ranked passing defense and only 83 yards against the Dolphins (6th ranked pass defense). The Vikings boast the 13th best passing defense in the NFL. Thus, Losman should have some difficulties against a good Vikings pass defense and thus the play of RB Willis McGahee becomes a key factor in this game. Now, lets look at the road Vikings QB Brad Johnson has been on. He’s faced the Redskins, the Panthers, and the Bears. Johnson threw for 223 yards against the Redskins, who have the 16th best passing defense. Against the Panthers 5th ranked pass defense, Johnson threw for 243 yards. Last week versus the Bears, Johnson threw for 194 yards 12th ranked pass defense and 5th ranked overall defense. The bottom line is that Johnson and the Viking passing offense is consistent against any defense, and they have faced some very good passing defenses in the first 3 weeks yet his numbers rival that of Losman’s. Losman threw for 83 yards against the Dolphins 6th ranked defense… Johnson threw for 243 against the Panthers 5th ranked defense. Thus, Johnson should remain consistent and do well against the Bills 8th ranked passing offense. Along with another consistent and solid 90+ yard rushing day from RB Chester Taylor.
Since we are on the topic of numbers and comparisons, lets look at the running backs in this contest. Bills RB Willis McGahee is the better known in this matchup as Chester Taylor is just beginning to come into his own. By the numbers, McGahee has rushed for 311 yards on 71 carries averaging to around 4.4 yards per carry along with 0TD. Taylor has rushed for 275 yards on 75 carries averaging 3.7 yards per carry along with 1TD. Thus, the match up looks pretty even by the numbers and the edge should probably go to McGahee because he may be a tougher, more seasoned running back than Chester Taylor. But hold on a minute… the paper lies once again. Last week, McGahee rushed for 150 yards, almost half his season total vs. the Jets who are 25th against the run. The Dolphins and the Patriots were 16th and 17th respectively against the run. McGahee rushed for 70 yards on 20 carries vs. the Patriots and 91 yards on 25 carries vs. the Dolphins. Although consistently putting up numbers against decent run defenses, McGahee’s first real test comes against Minnesota this Sunday. The Vikings are ranked 10th against the run and if Losman is having a horrible day trying to get anything going, you can bet that the Vikings front four and linebacking core will key into McGahee and hold him to less than 70 yards on the day… which should all add up to the Bills having a sub-par offensive Sunday. Vikings RB Chester Taylor has been decent, durable, and consistent this season against some stiff competition. Taylor rushed for 88 yards on 31 carries vs. the Redskins 15th ranked rushing defense. Taylor rushed for 113 yards on 23 carries against the Panthers 27th ranked rushing defense in week two and 74 yards on 20 carries last week against the Bears 7th ranked rushing defense. Thus, even though he had a big day against a poor rushing defense, just like McGahee, Taylor has put up solid rushing numbers against two decent rush defenses. In all contests, he has rushed for more yards than the opposition has allowed on average throughout the season. Like QB Brad Johnson, Taylor is consistent and plays well against anyone. He should do well against the Bills 21st ranked rush defense (even with the possible return of LB Takeo Spikes).
The last tid bit of information to consider is the overall numbers. The Vikings are ranked 10th in the NFL against the run, the Bills 21st. The Vikings have put up these numbers against notable competition such as Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts (61 yards combined) and the Redskins 4th ranked rushing offense, Deshawn Foster and DeAngelo Williams (94 yards) and the Panther’s 21st rushing offense, and Thomas Jones (56 yards) and the 23rd ranked Bears rushing offense. The Vikings shut down the big names in the running game and put a big dint in the overall rushing rankings of each team that they have faced. The Bills 21st ranked rushing defense gave up 160 rushing yards to Laurence Maroney (rookie) and Corry Dillon of the 7th ranked rushing offense in the NFL, the New England Patriots. In week 2, the Bills gave up 125 yards to the Miami 22nd rushing offense led by RB Ronnie Brown (Ronnie who????) and WR Chris Chambers! In week 3, the Bills gave up 74 yards to Barlow, Washington, Houston, Pennington, etc and the Jets 27th running offense. This analysis tells us that the Bills can’t stop anybody, not even no name running backs on horrible running teams. The only decent running attack they have faced this year resulted in 160 yards rushing for the patriots. The Vikings have the 18th overall rushing attack in the league (averaging around 108 yards per game). Look for the Vikings to control this game with the running attack (and probably put up a lot of points with it). Defensively, look for the Vikings to have another big day against another notable running back in Willis McGahee.
Thus, the story shapes up like this. The Bills won’t be able to mount any offense against the Vikings whether it be by the pass or the run. Look for the Vikings to establish the run game early and look for QB Brad Johnson to pick apart the Bills defense with quick slants and play action passes. Bills QB J.P. Losman will have a tough day on Sunday as he will be pressured often and forced to make bad decisions of which the opportunistic Vikings will take advantage of and score some points. McGahee might have a decent game, but it won’t nearly be enough to catch up to the Vikings who should be able to control the flow of the game and the time of possession and thus build a small but insurmountable lead over the Bills by half time.
LUCK FACTOR --> Losman has an average day against the Vikings and are able to even out the time of possession. In this case, the Bills should be able to rack up around 220 yards total offense max and without long pass capabilities, this shouldn’t be enough for the Bills to overcome the Vikings. So, on point spread take the Vikings to cover the easy 1.5 points and pick them straight up on pro-line at 2.55.
For those who don’t want to read further, I’m picking the Redskins to win at home by building a 14+ point lead by half time. Although Jacksonville has looked good in the first 3 games of the season, I don’t think the teams they played were firing on all cylinders. . To warm you up to this game, lets look at the recent history between these two teams. Washington has won two of the three meetings with Jacksonville however in their last meeting in 2002 the Jags won 26 – 7 with Mark Brunnell at QB. Previously, Washington had won the first two contests by 12 points or more. Jacksonville has not yet won in Washington. Also, no real notable injuries to report that won’t heal by Sunday. However, one player to keep an injury eye on is CB Rasheen Mathis who is questionable with a knee injury. This is key because if he isn’t 100%, this opens up the Redskins passing game in a big way.
I think the stats on the Jags are a little misleading. Sure they beat the Cowboys and Steelers in Jacksonville but the Cowboys made a ton of mistakes that kept Jacksonville in the game. Also, Big Ben was not himself in his first start of the season against the Jags and the Jags found a way to pull off the win. Even in their only loss of the season, Colts QB Peyton Manning had one of his career worst games and still found a way to beat the Jags… mind you the Jags have given Manning a tough time in the last several years. However, I am giving Jacksonville some credit. They are a gutsy team with some talent and they never give up… they keep on attacking, clawing, and scratching in every game they play and this gives the opposing team a lot of stress and duress. They make the game seem longer than it actually is which creates frustration and impatience within the opposing teams sideline.
Now, I won’t do a side by side QB, RB, LB, SS, water boy, etc comparison of each team. Reason being is that the majority of the Redskins numbers have come in last weeks pounding of the Texans. However, last week was a very important week for both teams. The Jags figured out that, offensively, they can’t win against a team that is willing to scrap with them and the Redskins finally have their offense working… at game speed. Game speed offense was lacking in the first two weeks of the season for the Redskins and now that they have it, they are very very very DANGEROUS offensively.
Continuing on, this match up consists of the defense of the Jaguars vs. the balance of the Redskins. Defensively, the Jags are ranked 3rd overall in the NFL which is very impressive. They’ve held both the Colts and Steelers to their lowest point totals this season and for good reason. The Jags D is ranked 10th against the pass and 3rd against the run. Granted, that pass D has earned its ranking but I question that 3rd ranked run D. The Jags held RB Julius Jones (will be good in 3 years, but below average right now) to 72 yards in week 1 and the entire Stars team to 85 yards. Dallas has the 16th ranked rushing offense. In week 2, the Jags held RB Willie Parker (another young stud who should be good soon) and Pittsburgh’s 15th ranked rushing offense to 26 yards rushing and the Colts 24th ranked rushing offense to 65 yards on the ground. From these stats, I argue that the Jags D hasn’t seen a decent running attack or RB. The Skins 4th ranked running offense (although it is inflated because of last week’s stomping of Houston) and healthy RB Clinton Portis, at home, should be a real test for this Jags rushing D. If they aren’t successful, this should open up the passing game for the Redskins and with the weapons they have on the passing offensive side of the ball, that 10th ranked Jags D should get quite the workout. However, the Jags passing D is legit. Facing Drew Bledsoe, Ben Rothlesberger, and Peyton Manning in the first three weeks and allowing a meager 42 points in the air is pretty damn good. Offensively, Jags RB Fred Taylor is off to a stellar start and is running quite well. He has faced a decent running defense in the Cowboys (9th) and a good run defense in the Steelers (5th) and has had success. Boasting the 8th best running offense (only 75 yards per game behind the total passing offense for the Jags) this team relies on ball control and the wear and tear of an effective running game to win ball games.
LUCK FACTOR --> Look for Jags RB Fred Taylor to have a good day on Sunday (100+ yards rushing) but also for Redskins QB Clinton Portis to expose the Jags run defense which isn’t as good as the numbers suggest. The luck factor of this game will be field position. Look for the Redskins defense to reek havoc on Jags QB Byron Leftwich. They will force a couple turnovers and win the field position battle. Then, through utilizing Portis, look for play action to open up and for the Redskins to come away with points on 70% of their drives and thus build the early lead and keep on tacking on field goals here and there. This will force the hand the Jags 21st ranked passing offense to move the ball downfield quickly and they simply won’t be able to do it.
The Jags are on a decline with their offensive slump (especially the passing game) and the Redskins are on the rise with finally figuring out the offense, which is dangerous all around. Understandably, if the Redskins don’t win the field position battle the Jags should be able to pull out the win in another low scoring affair. However, with home field advantage, a quality offensive co-ordinator and head coach calling the shots, and a Redksins team ready for RB Fred Taylor, bet on the home team to surprise and pull out the win. So, on point spread have the Redskins cover the 3.5 points. On pro-line, pick the Redskins to win at a healthy 3.60.
Since 2000, New England is 3 – 1 vs. Cincinnati with two of the four games being decided by 3 points or less. All four games have been decided by 7 points or less. New England’s only loss came in Cincinnati by 6 points in 2001. However, the Patriots have not lost consecutive games in 52 contests which is the 3rd longest active streak since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Also, Palmer looks to lead his team to their second consecutive 4 – 0 start. The comparison’s are similar on both sides of the field. The Bengal’s have a very talented and potent offense along with an all around decent defense that gets the job done. Palmer is becoming a great NFL quarterback and RB Rudi Johnson is having a break out year, with almost 300 yards rushing and 3 rushing touchdowns. Not to be outdone, the New England Patriots possess a tried and true QB in Tom Brady along with many offensive weapons that just have been operating at 80% or so the entire season. The defense has been sound, but called on too often to defend a short field. The big divide is that the Bengal’s are finishing off their drives while the Patriots are still waiting to break out of the minor offensive sputter that is keeping them from scoring on a regular basis and becoming dominant once again in the AFC. In this game something’s gotta give and fortunately my picks will make a lot of money because of this.
On the injury front, the Patriots are relatively healthy with Tom Brady “supposedly” still suffering a little from a slight shoulder injury. Clearly, from looking at the interviews, this stinks of Bill Bilechick’s infamous mind games and Brady will be 100% and good to go on Sunday. However, the Bengals are pretty banged up… especially on D. 6 defensive starters for the Bengal’s are nursing some injuries and two of these defensive starters, LB Rashad Jeanty and SS Dexter Jackson will miss Sunday’s contest. Along with two other injuries to the secondary/linebacking core and two injuries on the defensive front for the Bengals, Patriots QB Tom Brady should get back on track this week. Brady has thrown for over 700 yards this season already, and with the offensive weapons he has around him such as TE’s Ben Watson, Daniel Grahm and WR’s Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel and Troy Brown represent a balanced offensive attack. The wildcard in this entire match up is Patriots RB Cory Dillon who is yet to establish any dominance this year. However, combined with RB Laurence Maroney, the Patriots should still possess a balanced and strong offensive attack that can strike effectively all over the field, thus making the injured and patchwork Cincinnati defense run all over the field to make the plays. Also, Patriots coach Bill Bilechick is a football mastermind and he should be able to make life very difficult for the Bengal’s defense.
To continue on the injury front, the Bengal’s don’t have any serious injuries but they do have a lot of banged up WR’s such as T.J. Houshmandzedeh (foot), and Tab Perry (hip) who is out for week 4. However, WR’s Chad Johnson, Kelley Washington and Chris Henry are ready to go but look for Henry to possibly be facing suspension after once again getting himself in some hot water. He will be a game time decision. Although healthy, news interviews have shown that these receivers are still banged up and recouping from their dramatic win over Pittsburgh last Sunday. Although he was listed as “healthy”, Bengals WR Chad Johnson only had 11 yards receiving last week against the Steelers. However, this week he is opening his mouth stating he is going to wreak havoc on the Patriots secondary. In a surprising and out of character twist, Patriots head coach Bill Bilechick responded to Johnson’s remarks, noting that he has spent all week preparing for C.J. and that he will not be the same after Sunday’s game…. This shows how intense Bilechick and the Patriots are preparing for this game and besides, I’d take Bilechick’s ability to shut down C.J. over C.J’s ability to beat the entire Patriots secondary along with the schemes of Bill Bilechick. Defensively, the Patriots have a couple minor injuries to their secondary in Hobbs and Wilson (wrist and hamstring), but both should be good to go for Sunday. However, with Tedy Bruschi, Junior Seau, Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison and Asante Samuel 100% healthy, pissed off, and fully prepared to play on Sunday, Bengals QB Carson Palmer and the talented but banged up offense might have a below average day against the Patriots defense.
Before we look at the luck factor, lets scour over the overall statistics for each team. The New England Patriots boast the 7th best overall offense with the pass ranking 13th best and the running game ranking 7th best in the NFL but are only averaging roughly 17 points per game. The Bengal’s offense is ranked 14th overall with the 18th best passing offense and the 10th best rushing offense in the NFL and are averaging 28 points per game. Thus, proving my point that the main divide between these two offenses is that the Bengal’s are finishing off plays for major points while the Patriots are sputtering. Defensively, both teams are pretty similar. The Patriots rank 19th overall in the NFL while the Bengal’s rank 20th. Each team has played a solid football team, a week football team, and a mediocre football team. The only difference is that the Bengal’s battled through hell and back to beat the Steelers while Brady and the Patriots couldn’t capitalize on anything and lost to the Bronco’s.
LUCK FACTOR --> The luck factor this game is the emotional and physical toll that week 3 had on each team. The Bengal’s, bruised and battered, gave everything they had and battled through a tremendously physical game where they took a lot of punishment. The back and forth play was an emotional rollercoaster for the Bengal’s and pulling out the win took everything out of them. They are DESTINED for a let down game. They simply don’t have the mental focus, energy, or physical strength to stay competitive against a very pissed off, focused, determined, and healthy Patriots team. This is the rebound test for the Patriots and don’t doubt for a second that they won’t pour everything into this game to keep their pride in tact and the critics off their back. They want dominance, most of them have been there before, they are a well gelled group, and this win is crucial for them to set the course straight. If Bill is talking and taking all the tricks out of the bag you know that the Patriots are willing to do whatever they need to do to win this game…. the Bengal’s aren’t on the same level this week… however, they were last week against the Steelers.
Pick the Patriots to cover the 6.5 points as this is way too many points for the Bengal’s. The pro-line is tricky for this game. I’m going to go with the tie just out of respect for Carson Palmer and that quick attack capable offense. However, if you think that a late comeback is out of the question for Palmer and the boys this week take the Patriots straight up.
This will be a very good game to watch and some may say a scary game to bet on, but I’ve got the winner for you. The main variable in this game is the absence of Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander which makes scoring points against the Bears defense a little more difficult. Unfortunately, this is the second big injury to the Seahawk offense (they lost a starting guard as well). Defensively for the Seahawks, they have two key injuries to their secondary. CB,FS,SS Jordan Babineaux (concussion) is out for Sunday’s game against the Bears but FS Ken Hamlin (2 INT’s 18 TKL’s) will probably play on Sunday. The Bears are healthy on D but might miss TE Desmond Clark (did not practice Friday) who has 193 yards receiving and a TD. Although there is a decent backup(Gilmore) waiting to fill in for Clark, don’t expect the Bears offense to use him like they did Desmond although Gilmore does have 2 TD’s. Other than these injury reports, there are no major reports to discuss on the injury front. The QB showdown in this contest should be a dandy as Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck (67.8 completion %, 658 yards passing, 6TD’s and 5 INT’s) faces off against emerging QB sensation Rex Grossman (64.9 completion %, 829 yards passing, 6TD’s and 3INT’s). The RB battle should be won by Bears RB Thomas Jones who is consistent and keeps drives going. The Bears are 4-1 at Soldier Field under Grossman, who threw for career highs of 289 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-7 home win over Detroit in Week 2. Chicago is 8-1 at home since the start of last season, allowing 44 points in those wins (works out to 5.5 points allowed per win). To get a better analysis of this game, lets turn to the statistics.
Obviously, the main match-up is between the Seahawks offense and the Bears defense. The Seahawks have the 18th best overall offense in the NFL, ranking 19th on the pass and 14th on the run. In addition, the Seahawks offense is averaging 24 points per game, 4 points below their #1 scoring offensive output from last year. Defensively, the Bears rank 5th overall defensively, ranking 12th overall against the pass and 8th overall against the run. The Bears defense is allowing an average of 7.6 points per game (23 points allowed all season). This is the best overall defensive points allowed per game average in the NFL. Also, take into consideration that in the past 8 wins they have collected out of the last 9 games at Soldier Field, the Bears have allowed 5.5 points per game. With Alexander out for the Seahawks the Bears will be able to key in on the new 4 man WR offensive set that the Seahawks are using quite well. However, this 4 WR set was much more effective with Alexander in the back field. Look for the front 4 of the Bears D line to control the running game and put constant pressure on Hasselbeck the entire game. You can bet that the Bears 12th ranked passing defense is looking to score some points on Sunday.
Defensively, the Seahawks rank 11th overall with the 23rd best passing defense and the 2nd best rushing defense. The Bears have the 8th best offense placing 5th in the passing department and 23rd in the rushing department. Look for Grossman to pick apart the Seahawks horrible secondary and for Jones to get some touches to keep them honest. Also, consider that the Seahawks have built early leads on many opponents this year and thus, especially in the last two weeks, the teams have been forced to go to the pass for the majority of the game and thus running attempts have been way down. This has inflated the effectiveness of that Seahawk running defense. If the Bears control the game like they should, the Seahawk run defense will be tested to the full extent and we will see if that defense can take the wear and tear.
So, as a re-cap, we have Seattle’s strength in the running game vs the Bear’s strength in stopping the run. However, without RB Shaun Alexander in the line up for the Seahawks look for the Bears to easily win this battle. Then, we have the Seahawks new look receiving offense (19th overall) against the Bears stingy passing defense (12th overall). Without Alexander in the line up to balance the attack and keep the Bears defensive secondary totally honest, the Bears will win this battle. Also, we have the Bears strength in the passing game vs. the Seahawks horrible pass defense. Look for the Bears to put up 3 touch downs through the air guaranteed. Then you have the bears 23rd ranked rushing offense against the somewhat untested 2nd ranked Seahawks rushing defense. Simply, the Bears won’t mind losing this battle if it means keeping the Seahawks honest against the run and thus eating up 6 minutes per drive of clock time that results in a major score.
Luck Factor --> The Luck Factor has already occurred as Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander will not have a decent rushing day on Sunday to keep this game close. The other part of the equation is the play of Rex Grossman who should have made the adjustments (both learning and experientially) concerning up the middle blitz pressure that caused him a lot of trouble against Minnesota last week. However, when the pressure wasn’t there or when he was able to move the pocket, Grossman really looked superb and moved the ball around quite well. Thus, in very convincing fashion, I say play the Bears to cover the 3.5 points on point spread and to win straight up on pro-line @ 1.80. This may be the easiest game to bet on in week 4.
Other notable picks… on point spread have the Saints cover against the Panthers (Saints are due for a let down but the Panthers have not proven anything this year at all… and historically the Saints have given the Panthers headaches). Have St. Louis cover the 5.5 points against the Lions (that Rams O will have the ball all day long) and have the Cardinals cover the 7.5 points against the Falcons ( Both teams can score points, but Vick can’t keep up with Warner’s passing game).
A wise man once told me today “This year, to be effective in picking football winners in drafts and sports select, you have to know absolutely NOTHING about football”. So, check back later (late Saturday night or early Sunday Morning) for Ev’s Extra Extravaganza as I will reveal Kinky Kayla’s Kick you in the Kohones POWER PICKS for the games I have selected this week.
